October 21, 2021
The CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia was sponsored by CD Media and conducted by Big Data Poll, interviewing 1,061 likely voters statewide via online survey panel from October 16 to October 20, 2021. The survey sampling error is ± 3.0% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 35.6% Democratic, 34.4% Republican, 22.8% Independent and 7.2% Other. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.
CD Media/Big Data Poll: Virginia Gubernatorial Election Dead Even At 47%
A new CD Media Big Data Poll finds the Virginia gubernatorial election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin dead even at 47% among likely voters. The most important voting issues, the president’s waning approval rating, and a clear Republican enthusiasm edge have made the election for the next governor in the Old Dominion a toss-up.
Mr. Youngkin is offsetting a slight disadvantage among base crossover (4% vs.7%) with a roughly 10-point lead among independents and third-party voters, 48.3% to 38.0%. In 2017, then-Republican nominee Ed Gillespie only carried this group by just under 3 points.
“Democrats wanted this election to be about the pandemic, Medicaid expansion and other healthcare-related issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris noted. “But concern over the pandemic response and healthcare have taken a backseat to pocketbook issues and public education.”
When asked, voters cited the economy and jobs (25.5%) and cost of living/taxes/inflation (17.4%) as the two issues most important to their vote for governor this year. While coronavirus/vaccinations were cited by a combined 15.2% of voters, public education was closely behind at 14.0%.
When the state leaned Republican, Virginia had a long voting history of electing a governor from a party not in the White House during a president’s first term. Joe Biden won the state 54% to 44% last November, and now a significant percentage of his voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as president.
Only 45% of voters statewide approve of the job he’s doing, to include just 21% who strongly approve. That compares to 53% who disapprove, to include 43% who strongly disapprove. His overall approval stands at 34% among independent/other voters, a group he carried by nearly 20 points (57% to 38%) in 2020.
Democratic Governor Ralph Northam is in better shape than the president, though only slightly above water. While 47.0% approve of the job the current governor is doing, nearly as many (45.7%) disapprove. In 2017, Governor Northam easily carried the Hispanic vote, 67% to 32%.
“With Hispanics, Mr. McAuliffe is coming nowhere near the numbers Governor Northam enjoyed,” Mr. Baris added. “The Republican candidate has closed the gap considerably among Latinos and expanded on Mr. Gillespie’s lead among whites.”
White voters are backing Mr. Youngkin 56% to 39%, up from the 57% to 42% margin in 2017. Hispanic and Latino voters are backing Mr. McAuliffe 54% to 41%, a 20-point swing to the Republican candidate. Black voters are breaking 67% to 13% for the Democratic candidate, down from the 87% to 12% margin for Governor Northam. Asian voters break overwhelmingly for the former governor, 68% to 24%, while other racial groups back the Republican, 64% to 30%.
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, public education and the culture wars are at the forefront of the race for the next governor of Virginia. A new CD Media Big Data Poll finds voters in the Old Dominion overwhelmingly oppose a slew of Democratic policies, to include transgender participation in sports, the use of locker rooms and bathrooms, as well as “gender neutral” bathrooms.
Voters in Virginia were asked to “tell us whether you support or oppose each of the following public school policies pertaining to transgender students.” When it comes to allowing transgender students to participate “on sports teams alongside the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female joining a biological female soccer team, or visa-versa,” 52.2% of voters say they oppose the policy and only 29% support it.
The Daily Wire first reported that officials at Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) appeared to cover up a sexual assault in order to preserve the policy of “gender neutral” bathrooms on campuses. On May 28, a 15-year old biological male sexually assaulted a 9th grade biological female in a gender neutral bathroom. Meanwhile, voters opposed that policy 48.3% to 38.9% even though only 44.8% indicated they were aware of the recent reports.
Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is currently locked in a dead heat against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the upcoming gubernatorial election, “called for an immediate investigation into the Loudoun County School Board for endangering our students and violating the Virginia Constitution.”
“When I’m governor, we’re going to take immediate action in regards to our kids’ safety,” he tweeted. “Our kids cannot wait.”
Mr. McAuliffe has made some missteps on the issue of public education, which was cited as a top voting issue by respondents in the survey. Following a debate gaffe, The Daily Wire exclusively obtained footage showing Mr. McAuliffe evading a reporter peppering him about Loudoun County prosecutor Buta Biberaj, who campaigned with the Democratic candidate earlier this month. An obviously startled Mr. McAuliffe asked the reporter whether she was “vaccinated” as he avoided questions.
Parental voters with children 18 and older were the least likely to support the policy, as 46.1% “strongly” opposed it and another 11.2% opposed it. Parents with school-aged children were also more likely to oppose the policy than voters without children of any age, at all.
Voters also oppose transgender students competing for sports scholarships against the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female competing against biological females for a track-and-field scholarship, by a wide 54.8% to 25.9% margin.
When asked if they supported or opposed transgender students using locker and bathroom facilities with the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female sharing locker rooms and bathrooms with biological female students, 53.5% opposed it and only 28.8% supported it.
Lastly, the CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia asked voters which came closer to their view on education. The widely accepted view of Critical Race Theory—or, the idea “children should be taught that the only way to overcome racism is to acknowledge U.S. society, laws and institutions are inherently racist and some are disadvantaged no matter what they do”—was chosen by just 21.9%.
The idea that “children should be taught to be merit-based, racially color blind and capable of being whomever if they work hard, not that they are disadvantaged based on the color of their skin” was chosen by two-thirds of voters (66.1%).
Voters in Virginia overwhelmingly support a series of proposals aiming to strengthen election integrity, such as photo identification (Voter ID), strict signature verification, bans on ballot harvesting and drop boxes, and more. A new CD Media Big Data Poll conducted among likely gubernatorial election voters in the Old Dominion finds a total 80.5% back laws “requiring all voters to provide photo identification to cast a vote,” while a paltry 11.4% oppose it and 8.1% are unsure.
That broad coalition includes 83% of white voters, 69% of black voters, 78.9% of Hispanic voters, 89.1% of Asians and 83.4% identifying with other races. By party, voter ID is backed by 71.2% of Democrats, 90.8% of Republicans and 78.3% identifying as Independent/Other.
“Signature verification, or the matching of voters’ signatures to driver’s license or an official voter registration card” was backed by 72.6%, to include 46.6% who strongly support it. Once again, large majorities of voters identifying with each party and racial demographic group support the verification procedure.
“Once again, we have found a deep disconnect between voters’ views on election reform and what is portrayed in the media,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Very small minorities with a disproportionately loud voice in media and the political process look to sow division over issues that enjoy widespread agreement.”
“Frankly, it’s sad and tragic.”
In fact, voters in Virginia express broad support for lesser known proposals facing similar opposition, while rejecting others that have been advanced by many states. A majority, 56.7%, support “bans on ballot harvesting and drop boxes,” rejecting “the practice of allowing non-government third parties to collect and deliver ballots not belonging to them.”
Fairfax County has already signaled that it will not only take days before they report results in full, but also the total number of votes cast countywide in the upcoming statewide election. But 71.1% would support the imposition of “Election Day deadlines for officials to report the total number of votes cast in their precincts/counties,” to include 45.9% who strongly support the proposal.
September 24, 2021
Full Interactive Crosstabs & Methodology
The CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll for Fall 2021 was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,000 registered voters in Georgia via online survey panel from September 18 to September 22, 2021. The sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter demographics to include age, gender, race and region. Party identification or affiliation—separate from the more static party registration—is impacted by weighting aforementioned variables, but results are NOT weighted for party identification. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 38% Republican, 34% Democratic, and 28% Independent/Other.
Republicans Lead Democrats on Generic Ballot In Georgia
Republicans lead Democrats statewide on the Generic Ballot in Georgia ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, voters in the Peach State would back the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate by roughly 5 points, 43.7% to 38.7%.
Unaffiliated voters backed Republicans by about 3 points, 30.3% to 26.7%, though more than 1 in 3 (34.1%) remain undecided. Nine-percent (8.9%) chose someone else. Third Party voters are leaning toward Republicans by 5 points, 17.5% to 12.8%, with more than half (56.2%) undecided. Fourteen-percent (13.5%) say they would vote for someone else. Combined, Democrats trail Republicans among non-two-party voters by 4 points, 28.0% to 24.3%.
“As we saw in the election for U.S. Senate in Georgia, voters are leaning toward the Republican candidate outside the survey sampling error,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But there are key differences in the voting coalitions that result in Republican candidates for the U.S. House running slightly behind their presumptive nominee, Herschel Walker.”
“There are also more undecided voters for the lower chamber than the upper chamber.”
More than 6 in 10 white voters (62.3%) chose the Republican candidate, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.3%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.
By area, the Democratic candidate leads only among Urban voters, 58.3% to 25.4%, with 13.6% undecided. Republicans dominate among rural voters by more than 40 points, 61.3% to 19.9%. In the suburbs, Republicans hold a slight 2-point lead.
By region, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House lead only in Atlanta Metro, 54.3% to 30.7%. Republicans lead in the North (48.5% to 31.7%), Central Georgia (51.9% to 26.9%), and the Coast / South (45.5% to 35.1%). The Atlanta Suburbs are just outside of the sampling error with Republicans leading by over 3 points, 44.2% to 40.8%.
Important to note, the survey was conducted before the crisis of the debt ceiling and the failure of the Democratic majority to force the Biden Administration’s infrastructure bill into law. As previously reported, the CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll found President Joe Biden’s approval rating deeply underwater in Georgia. Only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.
“There is a well-established, strong relationship between presidential approval rating and party performance in midterm elections,” Mr. Baris added. “History, Democrats were already facing headlines in the U.S. House and the plummeting approval rating for the president is not helping.”
“Mr. Biden’s job performance has become a significant drag on Democratic candidates in Georgia, particularly with truly persuadable voters.”
Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.
Forensic Audit for the 2020 Election
Voters in Georgia overwhelmingly support calls for a full forensic audit of the statewide vote in the 2020 presidential election, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. From requiring photo identification to bans on drop boxes and ballot harvesting, to greater oversight and constraints on late-arriving ballots, voters in the Peach State back favor election integrity over convenance.
“As we found in January, there is broad consensus for much more strict election reforms and proposals than we saw put on the books in Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Further, roughly 6 in 10 voters support calls from some Republicans to review the integrity of the vote last year.”
Herschel Walker Leads Raphael Warnock for U.S. Senate in Georgia
Herschel Walker leads incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate in Georgia, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. The former football star and Republican frontrunner leads the junior senator outside the survey’s sampling error by 5 points, 45.6% to 40.9%.
Unaffiliated voters backed Walker over Warnock by about 2 points, 37.6% to 36.0%, with roughly 1 in 4 (26.5%) undecided. Third Party voters backed Warnock 30.8% to 21.6%, with nearly half (47.6%) undecided.
“A more fired-up Republican base has already coalesced behind Herschel Walker and the crossover vote favors him, as well,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But the size and scope of Walker’s advantage over Raphael Warnock is blinding when drilling down on area and region.”
“The man is dominating among all the key regional demographics.”
Nearly two-thirds of white voters (65.0%) chose Walker, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.1%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.
Warnock leads among urban voters 56.2% to 29.2%, while Walker dominates among rural voters 62.6% to 22.3%. The two candidates are statistically tied in the suburbs at 44%.
By region, the Democrat leads only in Atlanta Metro, 58.2% to 29.4%. The Republican leads in the North (53.3% to 29.4%), Central Georgia (51.4% to 33.8%), and the Coast / South (48.5% to 35.4%). The Atlanta Suburbs are statistically tied with Walker leading by just over 1 point, 46.0% to 44.5%.
“Both Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate in Georgia lost on January 5 because they failed to generate enough turnout among the base in Central and South / Coastal Georgia regions,” Mr. Baris added. “Democrats didn’t win those races. Republicans lost them by not defending the former president.”
“Herschel Walker is not suffering from the same disadvantages.”
Mr. Walker was endorsed for the Republican nomination by former President Donald J. Trump, and will appear with him at the Georgia National Fairgrounds in Perry for the “Save America Rally” this Saturday.
Gubernatorial Vote Preference: Republican Primary
“President Donald J. Trump is the kingmaker in Georgia. However, if he chooses to sit out the gubernatorial primary, then Governor Kemp will have the edge,” Mr. Baris added. “If he does not, then whomever he endorses will benefit greatly and likely win the nomination.”
U.S. Senate Vote Preference: Republican Primary
“Hershel Walker is doing what he has always done best in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia,” Mr. Baris said. “He is running way ahead of the competition, holding large and commanding leads among all partisan affiliations who indicate they will vote in the GOP primary next year, in every region throughout the state and among every demographic.”
“The Republican nomination looks to be his for the taking.”
Governor Brian Kemp’s Approval Rating
Governor Brian Kemp currently enjoys positive ratings among all registered voters in Georgia, with just under half (49.7%) approving of his job performance and just over 4 in 10 (41.6%) disapproving. However, the pollster who conducted the survey says the results raised some questions about his re-election prospects.
“Governor Kemp is above water in Georgia, but beneath the surface he has some issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “More than 1 in 4 Republican voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as governor and independents are nearly tied.”
“He’s far more vulnerable in a general election than it appears at a glance,” Mr. Baris noted. “His overall approval rating is being propped up by a third of Democratic voters who are more likely than not to vote for their own candidate once one has been nominated.”
President Joe Biden’s Approval Rating
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is badly underwater in the Peace State, according to a new CD Media/ Georgia Record/Big Data Poll. In this tumultuous time of his presidency, only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.
“As we’ve seen nationally and in other battleground states, voters have quickly soured on President Joe Biden in Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “Statewide, he has taken a significant hit as roughly 14% of voters who backed his candidacy in November now disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while less than 6% who voted for former President Donald J. Trump approve.”
Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.
“Nearly twice as many voters strongly disapprove (43%) of his job performance juxtaposed to those who strongly approve (22%).”