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Private Payrolls Up, Non-Farm Upcoming, Fed Delivers Dove Trap

ADP Payrolls up

Private payrolls ADP data came out, which is subject to a tracking error of +/- 60K, therefore not the market’s favorite barometer. That said, it printed well above expectations at 275K jobs. March was also revised higher from 129K to 151K jobs. This poses risks to the market’s non-farm payroll forecasts on Friday. Currently the street is looking for the non-farm April private reading to be 185K.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing headline number softened to 52.8 from 55.3. The much-watched employment component also fell to 52.4 from 57.5, but of course the big news today was the FOMC meeting and Powell press conference. The Fed delivered a surprise 5 bp reduction of the IOER, but explained the adjustment as “technical.” The press conference delivered a hawkish surprise as Chair Powell explained the low level of inflation as “transitory,” quashing hope for an insurance rate cut in the coming quarter.

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