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Headline Durable Goods Order Misses, But Underlying Real Economy Numbers Strong

House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing – 2020-03-11

The headline Durable Goods orders number released this morning for August missed estimates by almost a percent, indeed a disappointment. However, the underlying number, ex-defense orders, was very strong. Revisions of past months also moved higher.

In short, the numbers show Main Street recovering, while Boeing and other contractors are still seeing problems. Defense tends to be a big-ticket number and can vary month to month.

On the bright side – capital goods shipments non-defense, ex-air – a proxy for business investment, rose 1.5% MoM (better than the expected 0.8% MoM), reported Zero Hedge.

Durable Goods Orders (Aug) printed at 0.4% vs 1.5% consensus estimate.

Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Aug) printed at 0.4% vs 1.2% estimate.

Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Aug) printed at 0.7% vs 0.1% estimate.

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug) printed at 1.8% vs 0.5% estimate.

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