It is likely we are already in recession with the Q1 GDP printing in negative territory. The economic data released this morning shows the economy contraction steadily. These are leading indicators.
Financial markets continue their implosion to much lower levels, as interest rates have only started to rise.
“The PMI survey has fallen in June to a level indicative of the manufacturing sector acting as a drag on GDP, with that drag set to intensify as we move through the summer. Forward-looking indicators such as business expectations, new order inflows, backlogs of work and purchasing of inputs have all deteriorated markedly to suggest an increased risk of an industrial downturn, reported Zero Hedge.
“Demand growth is cooling from households amid the cost-of-living crisis, and capital spending by companies is also showing signs of moderating due to tightening financial conditions and the gloomier outlook. However, most marked has been a steep drop in orders for inputs by manufacturers, which hints at an inventory correction.
“Some welcome news is that the drop in demand for inputs has brought some pressure off supply chains and calmed prices for a wide variety of goods, which should help alleviate broader inflationary pressures in coming months.”
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) printed at 52.7 vs 52.4 consensus estimate.
Construction Spending (MoM) (May) printed at -0.1% vs 0.4% estimate.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (Jun) printed at 47.3 vs 50.2 estimate.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jun) printed at 49.2 vs 54.2 estimate.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) printed at 53 vs 54.9 estimate.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Jun) printed at 78.5 vs 81 estimate.