The CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia was sponsored by CD Media and conducted by Big Data Poll, interviewing 1,061 likely voters statewide via online survey panel from October 16 to October 20, 2021. The survey sampling error is ± 3.0% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 35.6% Democratic, 34.4% Republican, 22.8% Independent and 7.2% Other. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.
A new CD Media Big Data Poll finds the Virginia gubernatorial election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin dead even at 47% among likely voters. The most important voting issues, the president’s waning approval rating, and a clear Republican enthusiasm edge have made the election for the next governor in the Old Dominion a toss-up.
Mr. Youngkin is offsetting a slight disadvantage among base crossover (4% vs.7%) with a roughly 10-point lead among independents and third-party voters, 48.3% to 38.0%. In 2017, then-Republican nominee Ed Gillespie only carried this group by just under 3 points.
“Democrats wanted this election to be about the pandemic, Medicaid expansion and other healthcare-related issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris noted. “But concern over the pandemic response and healthcare have taken a backseat to pocketbook issues and public education.”
When asked, voters cited the economy and jobs (25.5%) and cost of living/taxes/inflation (17.4%) as the two issues most important to their vote for governor this year. While coronavirus/vaccinations were cited by a combined 15.2% of voters, public education was closely behind at 14.0%.
When the state leaned Republican, Virginia had a long voting history of electing a governor from a party not in the White House during a president’s first term. Joe Biden won the state 54% to 44% last November, and now a significant percentage of his voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as president.
Only 45% of voters statewide approve of the job he’s doing, to include just 21% who strongly approve. That compares to 53% who disapprove, to include 43% who strongly disapprove. His overall approval stands at 34% among independent/other voters, a group he carried by nearly 20 points (57% to 38%) in 2020.
Democratic Governor Ralph Northam is in better shape than the president, though only slightly above water. While 47.0% approve of the job the current governor is doing, nearly as many (45.7%) disapprove. In 2017, Governor Northam easily carried the Hispanic vote, 67% to 32%.
“With Hispanics, Mr. McAuliffe is coming nowhere near the numbers Governor Northam enjoyed,” Mr. Baris added. “The Republican candidate has closed the gap considerably among Latinos and expanded on Mr. Gillespie’s lead among whites.”
White voters are backing Mr. Youngkin 56% to 39%, up from the 57% to 42% margin in 2017. Hispanic and Latino voters are backing Mr. McAuliffe 54% to 41%, a 20-point swing to the Republican candidate. Black voters are breaking 67% to 13% for the Democratic candidate, down from the 87% to 12% margin for Governor Northam. Asian voters break overwhelmingly for the former governor, 68% to 24%, while other racial groups back the Republican, 64% to 30%.
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, public education and the culture wars are at the forefront of the race for the next governor of Virginia. A new CD Media Big Data Poll finds voters in the Old Dominion overwhelmingly oppose a slew of Democratic policies, to include transgender participation in sports, the use of locker rooms and bathrooms, as well as “gender neutral” bathrooms.
Voters in Virginia were asked to “tell us whether you support or oppose each of the following public school policies pertaining to transgender students.” When it comes to allowing transgender students to participate “on sports teams alongside the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female joining a biological female soccer team, or visa-versa,” 52.2% of voters say they oppose the policy and only 29% support it.
The Daily Wire first reported that officials at Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) appeared to cover up a sexual assault in order to preserve the policy of “gender neutral” bathrooms on campuses. On May 28, a 15-year old biological male sexually assaulted a 9th grade biological female in a gender neutral bathroom. Meanwhile, voters opposed that policy 48.3% to 38.9% even though only 44.8% indicated they were aware of the recent reports.
Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is currently locked in a dead heat against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the upcoming gubernatorial election, “called for an immediate investigation into the Loudoun County School Board for endangering our students and violating the Virginia Constitution.”
“When I’m governor, we’re going to take immediate action in regards to our kids’ safety,” he tweeted. “Our kids cannot wait.”
Mr. McAuliffe has made some missteps on the issue of public education, which was cited as a top voting issue by respondents in the survey. Following a debate gaffe, The Daily Wire exclusively obtained footage showing Mr. McAuliffe evading a reporter peppering him about Loudoun County prosecutor Buta Biberaj, who campaigned with the Democratic candidate earlier this month. An obviously startled Mr. McAuliffe asked the reporter whether she was “vaccinated” as he avoided questions.
Parental voters with children 18 and older were the least likely to support the policy, as 46.1% “strongly” opposed it and another 11.2% opposed it. Parents with school-aged children were also more likely to oppose the policy than voters without children of any age, at all.
Voters also oppose transgender students competing for sports scholarships against the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female competing against biological females for a track-and-field scholarship, by a wide 54.8% to 25.9% margin.
When asked if they supported or opposed transgender students using locker and bathroom facilities with the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female sharing locker rooms and bathrooms with biological female students, 53.5% opposed it and only 28.8% supported it.
Lastly, the CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia asked voters which came closer to their view on education. The widely accepted view of Critical Race Theory—or, the idea “children should be taught that the only way to overcome racism is to acknowledge U.S. society, laws and institutions are inherently racist and some are disadvantaged no matter what they do”—was chosen by just 21.9%.
The idea that “children should be taught to be merit-based, racially color blind and capable of being whomever if they work hard, not that they are disadvantaged based on the color of their skin” was chosen by two-thirds of voters (66.1%).
Voters in Virginia overwhelmingly support a series of proposals aiming to strengthen election integrity, such as photo identification (Voter ID), strict signature verification, bans on ballot harvesting and drop boxes, and more. A new CD Media Big Data Poll conducted among likely gubernatorial election voters in the Old Dominion finds a total 80.5% back laws “requiring all voters to provide photo identification to cast a vote,” while a paltry 11.4% oppose it and 8.1% are unsure.
That broad coalition includes 83% of white voters, 69% of black voters, 78.9% of Hispanic voters, 89.1% of Asians and 83.4% identifying with other races. By party, voter ID is backed by 71.2% of Democrats, 90.8% of Republicans and 78.3% identifying as Independent/Other.
“Signature verification, or the matching of voters’ signatures to driver’s license or an official voter registration card” was backed by 72.6%, to include 46.6% who strongly support it. Once again, large majorities of voters identifying with each party and racial demographic group support the verification procedure.
“Once again, we have found a deep disconnect between voters’ views on election reform and what is portrayed in the media,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Very small minorities with a disproportionately loud voice in media and the political process look to sow division over issues that enjoy widespread agreement.”
“Frankly, it’s sad and tragic.”
In fact, voters in Virginia express broad support for lesser known proposals facing similar opposition, while rejecting others that have been advanced by many states. A majority, 56.7%, support “bans on ballot harvesting and drop boxes,” rejecting “the practice of allowing non-government third parties to collect and deliver ballots not belonging to them.”
Fairfax County has already signaled that it will not only take days before they report results in full, but also the total number of votes cast countywide in the upcoming statewide election. But 71.1% would support the imposition of “Election Day deadlines for officials to report the total number of votes cast in their precincts/counties,” to include 45.9% who strongly support the proposal.