There’s a way out of the crisis. These may be the only viable solutions to preserve the integrity of Ukraine, meaning its keeping territory not already taken during the 2014 incursion into Donbas, when Obama-Biden literally did nothing. Arguably, these won’t preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty in whole to determine its future course. Ukraine’s participation in NATO is not in its future. However, Ukraine will preserve its cities.
Given what we know, Ukraine’s forces cannot defeat the massive Russian encirclement.
This means, an enforceable treaty will be necessary with an international peacekeeping force kept on Ukrainian territory until this problem settles itself out.
- Ukraine will be free to join the European Union – the EU being essentially a trading and business arrangement with legal, cultural, and political overtones and advantages reserved to its members. In other words, Ukraine’s business, political and cultural affairs going forward, as well as open travel, work arrangements, commerce and banking between EU nations, will be looking westward.
- Ukraine cannot formally join NATO – which is a military and security alliance standing in the way of Russian territorial expansion. Not joining NATO also satisfies Russia’s security needs, once Russia gained the neutral buffer territory it’s been demanding for a long time. It would prevent NATO’s proximity to, and encirclement of, Russia. It is the core reason for the crisis. As well, it ends Russian ambitions for hegemony over territories that formerly served only Russian interests during the Cold War. Russia’s demands that NATO not encircle it further in the Baltic region will probably be part of this formula – but the west will never agree to it. Meaning, neutralizing NATO’s role in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will not be on the table. Russia invading these nations would trigger an all out world war. In fact, in part of any deal, the Scandinavian nations joining NATO that is, may be on the table.
These may be the only viable solutions at this time, with some modifications yet to be proposed. These are rational and natural compromises that leave neither Ukraine, nor Russia, fully satisfied. But neither fully aggrieved. Both can save face. These provide neither nation full control over their futures on Ukrainian territory. But they can leave that nation secure, neutral, and peaceful to prosper and develop. They leave Ukraine with its territorial integrity intact, as well as its ability to do business and grow, to defend itself, and to secure itself as a sovereign state.
These are not perfect solutions or what some would argue an acceptable compromise for Ukraine.
It is what is.
At this point it is imperative for all the actors to accommodate each other quickly, to prevent death and destruction in Ukraine, the disintegration of NATO in the west, and the invasion of the Balkan states. For war at this point cannot be won by a Ukraine that is not protected by the NATO alliance. And if Ukraine fell, so will the NATO alliance, given Western Europe’s fecklessness and dependency on Russian energy.
The situation of European vulnerability and dependence being the direct result of the Obama-Kerry-Clinton-Biden climate policy that has shut down Donald Trump’s having freed up American energy. Consequently, their decisions and ideology has ended America’s ability to supply western Europe with cheap North American oil and gas.
THERE’S MUCH MORE TO THIS STORY THAN MEETS THE EYE – WHAT THE MEDIA WON’T TELL THE PUBLIC.
THE BIG GAMBLE – WHO EXACTLY STARTED THIS WAR?
As for the Russians, there’s a carrot, and not a stick, being offered. The Russians have a lot to gain. Some of the sanctions will be lifted immediately after their withdrawing from the battlefield. I would not recommend lifting all the sanctions.
From my vantage point there is no other solution then what I proposed above. I believe it is doable and should be obvious to anyone. The world community will agree to terms.
The bottom line: The security needs of all the nations, NATO, Allies, and Russia, need to be understood and addressed.
As it were, no other solution is logically, politically, or militarily, viable. Or advantageous.
Time is of the essence and the opportunity can vanish in a few days – if not sooner.