Over the past week, Wall Street’s attention has shifted away from the human toll of the Coronavirus pandemic, which according to conventional wisdom is that it “appears to be contained” and will peak some time in March with roughly 85,000 cases, and has instead moved to estimating the economic fallout from the disease, both in China and internationally.
As we discussed earlier this week, Goldman Sachs expects coronavirus to whack as much as 2% from Global GDP in Q1, as a result of China’s GDP growth – currently the world’s largest following material downward revisions to how India’s economy is measured (amid allegations of flagrant and purposeful miscalculations) – sliding to 4% and, with China’s economy now a quite material ~17% of the global economy, the collapse in economic contribution from Chinese tourism and trade, not to mention crippled supply chains, it is now widely accepted that as China sneezes the world will be impacted…
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