China will face a 130 million ton shortage of grains by 2025 according to a recent report by a Chinese think tank. The issue raises the question of whether or not China will fulfill its obligations under the ‘phase one’ trade deal negotiated last year by the Trump administration. Beijing may need to ramp up purchases of American farm products.
The White House recently declared ‘it is not even thinking about a phase two deal’ due to the cause and impact of the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, which Washington squarely blames on the Chinese Communist Party.
China’s domestic supply of three staple grains – wheat, rice and corn – is expected to fall short of demand by 25 million tonnes by the end of 2025, meaning there will be a rising dependence on imports, the Rural Development Institute at the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) found, reported The South China Morning Post.
While it noted China had established a national grain security system and that overall supply was sufficient at the moment, it said “there are also problems of structural imbalance between supply and demand”.
China is expected to have a corn supply gap of 16.68 million tonnes in the year from October to September 2021, an increase from the July forecast of 13.98 million tonnes, according to a separate report from the Chinese Agricultural Outlook Committee, a unit at the Ministry of Agriculture.