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Economy Continues To Recover – Jobless Down, Spending Up…But Markets Uncertain Over Election

Economy Continues To Recover - Jobless Down, Spending Up...But Markets Uncertain Over Election
image by Banja-Frans Mulder

Financial markets were higher on the open as personal income rose in Aug, and jobless claims shrank more than expected in the recent week. However, PMI data released later suggested addition economic slowing due to uncertainty over the November election, investigations, and general unease about the future. It is likely markets will be range-bound until we have some clarity.

Traders are worried about the economic disaster that awaits a Biden presidency with his assurances during the debate that he will lockdown the country once again.

Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) printed at 118.804k

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (MoM) (Aug) printed at the consensus estimate of 0.3%.

Personal Income (MoM) (Aug) printed at -2.7% vs -2.4% estimate.

Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 18) printed at 11.767M vs 12.225M estimate.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (MoM) (Aug) printed at 0.3%.

Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 25) printed at 837k vs 850k estimate.

Personal Spending (Aug) printed at 1.0% vs 0.8% estimate.

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Sep 25) printed at 867.25k.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) printed at 1.6% vs 1.4% estimate.

Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) printed at 53.2.

ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (Sep) printed at 49.6 vs 45.8 estimate.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) printed at 55.4 vs 56.3 estimate.

ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Sep) printed at 62.8 vs 58.6 estimate.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Sep) printed at 60.2 vs 54.5 estimate.

Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) printed at 1.4% vs 0.8% estimate.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Sep 25) printed at 76V vs 79B estimate.

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