Others will call it a “3-way tie” or a “logjam” or some such. Don’t buy it. Joe Biden is finally out of first place for the Democratic nomination. It’s a wonder that he stayed in first for so long considering the quantity of scandals surrounding the gaffe king.
In the latest poll from Monmouth State University, Biden fell from 32% to 19% support, while Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and shot up from 15% and 14%, respectively, to tie for the lead at 20%. Ukraine, China, his son Hunter, authoring the 1994 crime bill, buddying up with segregationists, and sniffing/fondling other men’s wives and children didn’t matter to Dems, but apparently senility is another story.
CD Media picked a Dem ticket of Warren-Sanders earlier this month and predicted Biden’s demise as early as May. Don’t lend any credence to pundits who suggest Biden might regain momentum with a strong debate showing on September 12th. He’s falling and won’t get more than a dead cat bounce. Expect him to settle in around 12-15% for awhile and then slowly fade in October.
Biden chose to ignore Barack Obama’s “You don’t have to do this, Joe” comment about running, which was of course Obama begging Biden not to wreck what’s left of the Obama legacy in a desperate bid for the office that has eluded him twice before. Rest assured Biden wishes now that he’d listened.
What To Expect Next
Warren and Sanders genuinely like one another, so don’t expect too many cheap shots in the media or the debates. Unless Sanders has secretly resigned himself to the role of VP already, which is doubtful, he will have to go after Warren on college loan debt–an idea she claimed would enrich taxpayers, and which is now spinning out of control–and her ridiculous plan to forgive 95% of outstanding debt.
In turn, Warren would be silly not to point out Sanders’ age (his 78th birthday is four days before the next debate). After all, everyone is focused on Biden’s age, and although Sanders is only a couple of years older, he already looks like a nursing home patient.
Nevertheless, expect civility between the frontrunners, and expect the other candidates, none of whom were affected by the massive transfusion of support from Biden to Warren/Sanders, to have their knives out. After all, it’s do or die for the single-digit-support gang. 4th place Kamala Harris, queen of the losers, mustered only 8%. Her only hope is a new scandal or some gift-wrapped miracle like the Howard Dean scream or Michael Dukakis tank photo that somehow sinks both Warren and Sanders.
Bottom line: President Trump’s most formidable potential opponent, the only reasonably moderate contender, has fallen, and can’t get up. Expect Trump to stir the pot with vigor.