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CD Media Big Data Poll: Fetterman’s Lead Over Oz Narrows in Pennsylvania Senate Race

CD Media Big Data Poll Pennsylvania Senate Fetterman vs Oz
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll

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The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Democrat John Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz by 43.8% to 40.0% in a quickly tightening race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. Fetterman’s lead is now just outside the sampling error of the survey.

By education, Dr. Oz leads among working class voters with no college degree 45.4% to 33.0% and among voters with some college or a 2-year degree, 42.1% to 36.5%. Fetterman leads among voters with a 4-year degree 51.0% to 39.3% and with advanced degrees, 70.2% to 24.9%.

The Keystone State is one of the most crucial battleground states and which party controls the governor’s mansion is critical to the 2024 presidential election. The 45th President became the first Republican to carry the state since 1988 when he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, but lost it to the 46th President by less than 1.2% in 2020.

Donald Trump heads to Wilkes-Barre on Saturday to rally for both Dr. Oz and Doug Mastriano. As previously reported, Democrat Josh Shapiro and Mastriano are locked in a tight race for governor in Pennsylvania. Shapiro holds a statistically insignificant lead at 43.9% with Mastriano taking 43.2%.

The Keystone State is one of the most crucial battleground states and which party controls the governor’s mansion is critical to the 2024 presidential election. Trump now leads Joe Biden 46.6% to 40.0% in the state.

Only 20.8% strongly approve of the job Biden is doing as President in Pennsylvania, while 50.8% strongly disapprove and another 3.8% somewhat disapprove. Overall, he’s underwater 43.3% to 54.5%. Only a combined 28.6% of independents and third party voters approve.

Of those who are undecided in the race for U.S. Senate, 69.0% strongly disapprove and another 3.6% somewhat disapprove.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Pennsylvania Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 927 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from August 30 to September 1, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.2% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.

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1 comment

magaman September 3, 2022 at 1:02 pm

Dave McCormick for Senate


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