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CDMedia Big Data Poll: Kari Lake Leads Katie Hobbs For Arizona Governor

Lake Widens Lead Over Hobbs for Arizona Governor Since July

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The CDMedia Big Data Poll finds Republican Kari Lake leading Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the race for governor of Arizona. Lake, a 22-year veteran anchor for Fox 10 Phoenix (KSAZ-TV), held a slight 1-point lead over Hobbs in the CDMedia Big Data Poll in July. 43.7% to 40.6%, with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.

Now, with four weeks to go before Election Day, Lake leads Hobbs in the Grand Canyon State by 3.7%, or 48.5% to 44.8%, respectively. The Republican has risen 9.1% since the last survey, while the Democrat has gained 6.7%. Less than 1% (0.6%) intends to cast a write-in vote and 6.2% remain undecided.

“There has been significant movement in the Arizona governor’s race since the last survey we conducted in the state,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, noted. “Republicans have come home after a tough fought primary and the voters who represent the nearly 50% decline in undecideds broke hard and fast for Lake.”

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Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Lake leads Hobbs among extremely enthusiastic voters, 53.9% to 43.7%, up from the 45.4% to 37.8% advantage Lake held in July.

Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4%. That certainty to vote compares to just 65.0% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, and 36.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic. Of those certain to vote, Lake leads Hobbs 50.5% to 44.9%, up from the 41.7% to 38.4% lead Lake held in July among those certain to vote.

Hobbs leads 41.7% to 31.7% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).

By region, Lake hold a 50.3% to 44.8% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That’s just outside the sampling error of the survey and it’s important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Hobbs leads in Pima County 55.3% to 36.6% and Lake leads in the rest of the state, 51.4% to 38.0%.

Biden Approval

President Joe Biden’s approval rating is still significantly underwater and negative, and intense disapproval has not diminished. Only 43.2% of likely general election midterm voters approval of the job he’s doing, including 19.2% who strongly approve. However, 55.7% disapprove to include 49.3% strongly disapprove.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.

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3 comments

Bruce Seibert October 7, 2022 at 11:41 am

It befuddles me that the more “educated” one is the more likely folks are to vote Democrat! Is Higher Ed. that successful at brainwashing intelligent people? Will they not understand what is at stake until their Liberty is gone? Why would they vote against their own financial interests? Do, like with the advertising for Question 1 on the Mass Ballot this year, that only others will have their taxes increased? There is plenty of evidence that tax REDUCTIONS boost the economy, which is the real source of increased revenues, not confiscation of the wealth of “the rich.” JFK said it best, “A rising tide lifts all boats.” Dinghies as well as yachts.

Reply
Uncommonly Average October 7, 2022 at 12:53 pm

Percentages can be misleading. The surprising extreme advance/post grad degree split is caused by having far fewer poll respondents who fit into that category. Fewer samples cause skewed percentages. For example, if there were only 10 such respondents then the difference between 6 for Hobbs and 4 for Lake is only 2, yet the percentage yields an extreme 60% to 40%. Misleading.

Having said that, in my opinion, all polls require AT LEAST a 10% adjustment factor to account for the historical proof that conservatives tend to not respond to polls. Biden publicly declaring MAGA an Enemy of the State, and White Supremacists/Terrorists tends to suppress responses to polls.

I doubt Hobbs will receive even 40% of the legitimate vote. I predict Hobbs gets Liz Cheney-type results. Record losers both.

Reply
Smarg Jones October 7, 2022 at 5:23 pm

I won’t believe Lake will win until she’s certified…I expect van loads of “uncounted ballots” to arrive at the vote counting centers if she’s ahead on voting day, just like in 2020.

Reply

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