September 19, 2022 WISCONSIN

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CD Media Big Data Poll: Evers, Michels in Dead Heat for Wisconsin Governor

Republican Turnout Advantage Buoying Michels’ Bid to Defeat Evers, Incumbent in Low 40s

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Democratic incumbent Governor Tony Evers locked in a dead heat with Republican Tim Michels in the hotly contested gubernatorial election in Wisconsin. Evers (41.9%) and Michels (42.1%) each draw about 42%, while 14.2% remain undecided and another 1.7% say they’ll vote for independent candidate, Joan Ellis Beglinger.

By education, voters with a high school degree or less back Michels 46.1% to 33.4%, though 18.8% are still undecided. Voters with some college or an Associate degree also back Michels 45.4% to 37.1% and 15.6% remain undecided. Voters with a 4-year degree back Evers by roughly 10 points, 47.5% to 37.7%, with 12.6% undecided. Evers’ biggest lead is among voters who hold advanced or postgraduate degrees, 55.6% to 36.1%. However, they are the smallest group in the electorate and only 7.2% remain undecided.

Men prefer Michels 46.4% to 37.5% and women prefer Evers by a similar margin, 46.5% to 37.7%. Further, men (92.3%) are also more “certain to vote” than women (86.1%), setting the stage for a more male-heavy electorate. That has largely been the case in Wisconsin since 2018, when men outvoted women and were 51% of the electorate. In 2020, the electorate was even at 50% male, 50% female.

Projected Electorate

Aristotle National Voter File Database Wisconsin Inference By Party

The electorate in the fall is projected to be more Republican than Democratic. In Wisconsin, machine-learning inference models that use primary vote history, contribution records and scores of other data attributes show Republicans outnumbering Democrats by roughly a 5-point spread—or, 38.58% Republican, 33.95% Democrat, and 27.47% None/Unknown.

The likely voter model used by the CD Media Big Data Poll projects the partisan composition of the electorate slightly less Republican at a R/D/I-O split of 34.5%/31.8%/33.7%. Of those “certain to vote” in November, Michels leads 44.1% to 42.0%. Of those “extremely enthusiastic” to vote, Michels also leads 48.0% to 41.3%.

“Our inference models have shown a clear and consistent trend toward Republicans in Wisconsin over the last six years or so,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris added. “In 2020, the Republican advantage was far larger than most—to include myself—had anticipated.”

“The major difference this year is that self-identified independent voters are backing Johnson and other Republicans.”

Michels leads Evers among self-identified independent voters 41.9% to 32.8%.

As previously stated, men are more likely to vote than women in November. More men (70.4%) are extremely enthusiastic to vote than women (63.8%), as well.

Most Important Issue

Cost of living and inflation ranked first when asked which issue would be most important to their vote at 26.7%. Abortion was second with 15.9% citing it as their most important issue and the economy and jobs was third with 14.6%. Johnson leads among voters who cited cost of living and inflation, as well as the economy and jobs. Barnes leads among voters who cited abortion. Immigration was fourth, cited by 6.7% of voters who overwhelmingly back Johnson.

Biden’s Approval Rating

President Joe Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Wisconsin. While 44.6% approve of the job he’s doing as president, to include 23.4% who strongly approve, 54.5% disapprove and that includes 47.9% who strongly disapprove.

“That -24.5% intensity index with only 0.9% remaining undecided strongly suggests Biden will be an anchor weighing down Democratic candidates in November,” Baris noted. “This should come as no surprise to anyone, though the impact is less at the gubernatorial level.”

Of those who remain undecided in the race for Wisconsin governor, 56.6% strongly disapprove and another 7.2% somewhat disapprove. Only 13.7% strongly approve and 18.9% somewhat approve.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Wisconsin Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 852 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from September 17 to September 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.


Trump Leads Biden in Wisconsin 2024 Rematch

Republicans Lead Democrats By 5 Points on the Generic Ballot in Wisconsin

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by in a hypothetical rematch in Wisconsin, 43.5% to 41.4%. A significant percentage would choose someone else at 12.9%, though that’s expected this far off from an election, and 2.1% are undecided.

“The Badger State was the first of the Blue Wall to fall in 2016 to the former president and the closest of the three Rust Belt states lost to Biden in 2020,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, stated. “Though both candidates are below 50%, this rounded 3-point margin for Trump in Wisconsin is the largest ever found statewide in the history of Big Data Poll.”

Men prefer Trump 47.0% to 38.2% and women prefer Biden by a more narrow margin, 44.8% to 39.9%. This November, men (92.3%) are also more “certain to vote” than women (86.1%), setting the stage for a more male-heavy electorate. That has largely been the case in Wisconsin since 2018, when men outvoted women and were 51% of the electorate. In 2020, the electorate was even at 50% male, 50% female.

By education, voters with a high school degree or less back Trump 48.1% to 36.7%, though he performs strongest among voters with some college or an Associate degree, 52.2% to 33.3%. Voters with a 4-year degree back Biden, 46.7% to 37.3%. Voters who hold advanced or postgraduate degrees heavily favor Biden, 57.4% to 28.2%.

Biden’s Approval Rating

President Joe Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Wisconsin. While 44.6% approve of the job he’s doing as president, to include 23.4% who strongly approve, 54.5% disapprove and that includes 47.9% who strongly disapprove.

“That -24.5% intensity index with only 0.9% remaining undecided strongly suggests Biden will be an anchor weighing down Democratic candidates in November,” Baris noted. “This should come as no surprise to anyone.”

Generic Ballot

Midterms 2022: Wisconsin Generic Ballot

Republicans lead Democrats by roughly 5 points on the Generic Ballot in Wisconsin, 47.3% to 42.0%. While support for Democratic candidates will assuredly rise as more undecided voters in Milwaukee County return to partisan voting, it is unlikely that support will eclipse or even match support for Republican candidates statewide.

Wisconsin Statewide Races

The CD Media Big Data Poll also finds Democratic incumbent Governor Tony Evers locked in a dead heat with Trump-endorsed Republican Tim Michels in the hotly contested gubernatorial election. Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson leads Democrat Mandela Barnes by just over 3 points in the race for U.S. Senate, 49.2% to 46.0%.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Wisconsin Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 852 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from September 17 to September 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.


Ron Johnson Leads Mandela Barnes For U.S. Senate In Wisconsin

Republican Turnout Advantage Buoying Johnson’s Bid for Third Term

Midterms 2022: Wisconsin Senate Vote Preference

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson leads Democrat Mandela Barnes by just over 3 points in the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, 49.2% to 46.0%. Only 4.5% are undecided and another 0.5% chose “other /write-in”.

“The Badger State is a must-hold for Republicans if they intend to retake control of the U.S. Senate,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, stated. “That being said, Ron Johnson appears on track to repeat a performance somewhat comparable to his re-election victory in 2016.”

By education, voters with a high school degree or less back Johnson 49.4% to 41.4%, though he performs strongest among voters with some college or an Associate degree, 55.6% to 39.8%. Notably, voters with a 4-year degree are nearly split, backing Barnes by only 5 points, 51.1% to 46.4%. Voters who hold advanced or postgraduate degrees heavily favor Barnes, 57.9% to 39.4%.

Men prefer Johnson 54.7% to 43.5% and women prefer Barnes by a much more narrow margin, 48.7% to 43.4%.

Projected Electorate

Aristotle National Voter File Database Wisconsin Inference By Party

The electorate in the fall is projected to be more Republican than Democratic. In Wisconsin, machine-learning inference models that use primary vote history, contribution records and scores of other data attributes show Republicans outnumbering Democrats by roughly a 5-point spread—or, 38.58% Republican, 33.95% Democrat, and 27.47% None/Unknown.

The likely voter model used by the CD Media Big Data Poll projects the partisan composition of the electorate slightly less Republican at a R/D/I-O split of 34.5%/31.8%/33.7%. Of those “certain to vote” in November, Johnson leads 50.7% to 45.7%. Of those “extremely enthusiastic” to vote, Johnson also leads 54.2% to 44.3%.

“Our inference models have shown a clear and consistent trend toward Republicans in Wisconsin over the last six years or so,” Baris added. “In 2020, the Republican advantage was far larger than most—to include myself—had anticipated.”

“The major difference this year is that self-identified independent voters are backing Johnson and other Republicans.”

Johnson leads Barnes among self-identified independent voters 52.0% to 38.8%.

Most Important Issue

Cost of living and inflation ranked first when asked which issue would be most important to their vote at 26.7%. Abortion was second with 15.9% citing it as their most important issue and the economy and jobs was third with 14.6%. Johnson leads among voters who cited cost of living and inflation, as well as the economy and jobs. Barnes leads among voters who cited abortion. Immigration was fourth, cited by 6.7% of voters who overwhelmingly back Johnson.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Wisconsin Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 852 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from September 17 to September 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.