BREAKING: Forensic Experts Suggest Mathematical "Red Flags" In First Round of Brazilian Presidential Election, Cites Benford's Law

October 30, 2022

Image by Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil

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This dossier was provided to us by a credible expert source and was created by a small group of technical experts in the fields of mathematics, political science, and forensic analysis, all who are well versed in election statistics and electoral anomalies.

The source provided this document and demonstrated the credibility of the authors who are presenting here their statistical findings on the first round of the Brazilian elections (held Sunday October 2nd).

The source group applied Benford’s Law, a highly recognized statistical formula, to analyze publicly available data provided by the Brazilian Electoral Court (TSE). The formula showed inconsistencies in voting tabulation in several regions across the country.

The links to the TSE’s publicly available data is in the document, and other experts are invited to conduct the same Benford’s Law test on the data. The voting tabulation graphs are also available — showing the region, the candidate, and the digit analyzed. Several charts show Benford’s Law curve in a certain format, while the actual curve of the vote tabulation veers completely off from it. This is what points to manipulation according to the expert source.

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Benford's Law never definitively proves fraud in and of itself. It is a methodology that is used to detect anomalies in large datasets, and thus help an auditor focus his audit on the clusters of data that present the anomalies. It serves as a "red flag” that, according to our source, should catalyze an audit review of the data in a system where auditors operate in good faith.

According to the source: the data patterns outlined in the dossier contain many strong anomalies that are glaring red flags. This is especially the case in the northeastern region of the country.

The curves and graphs in these compiled chart patterns present similarities to questionable elections in Iran and Venezuela in the past. This also greatly alarmed the expert source team.

We recommend that people read the document themselves and draw their own conclusions.

It is important to highlight that people in Brazil are unable to report news on such matters due to fears of Court persecution. As both Fox News and the New York Times have recently reported, there is clear indication that the Supreme and Electoral Courts are biased and will clamp down on anyone who investigates election integrity in Brazil or journalists reporting information that might be construed as calling into question the integrity of the election systems or the court’s own enforcement actions.

According to our source, the Brazilian central electoral body insists on obfuscating the transparency of the electoral process, which should be crystal clear and open to all forms of visibility and provides for an open and public count that allows for a subsequent physical audit. That any experts from the sciences have to publish this document without attribution for fear of running afoul of the Brazilian federal courts politically motivated meting out of “justice” and their Praetorian guard police force’s unconstitutional enforcement activity at the court’s behest, is a great tragedy for contemporary Brazil.

Needless to say, the threat to democracy in the stifling of open debate, especially on controversial issues, such as electoral mechanisms and systems, is manifestly clear.

N.b. This report has been released for distribution after the second round polls closed so as not to interfere with the electoral decision making of any Brazilian citizen voters.
















Matt Tyrmand

Matthew Tyrmand is an investigative and editorial political journalist who splits time between the USA and Europe (given his Polish American roots). He has worked on corruption investigations, electoral analysis, forensic auditing the public sector and serves on the boards and in the management of several of the top American journalist and activist organizations. He is often seen across American and European media and is a frequent guest on Bannon’s WarRoom and Polish television (TVP World).

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32 comments on “BREAKING: Forensic Experts Suggest Mathematical "Red Flags" In First Round of Brazilian Presidential Election, Cites Benford's Law”

  1. Definition:
    Ballot - (noun) A piece of paper used to cover a slave's eyes to prevent him from seeing he is standing on the auction block.

  2. Gee, that theory didn't apply in the US elections, because the US election was the fairest ever. Why should it apply in Brazil?
    The reference to the Supreme Court in Brazil is comic relief. It was the biased courts that stitched up "Lula" and "Dilma" so that Bolsonaro could be elected in the first place.

    1. Seems you're a totally ignorant when the subject is Brazil.

      Dilma was fired due an impeachment process that investigated financial misconduct.
      This process was leaded by Deputy and Senator chambers.
      It is not related to STF (Federal Suprme Court) or TSE (Electoral Supreme Court).

      Lula was investigated by corruption (active and passive) envolving several companies like banks, off shores, civil engineering, telecoms, etc., in several countries like Panama, Cuba, Angola, Argentina, Venezuela and USA among others.
      He was condemned by several crimes in 3 different criminal instances and by several different judges.
      Unfortunatelly, the STF (that is composed by leftists) removed all accusations despite any law to support that decision.

        1. Foram 3 juízos diferentes e 3 sentenças, não 3 instâncias (equívoco técnico):

          01- No dia 12 de julho de 2017, Sergio Moro, então juiz federal de primeira instância, condenou Lula a nove anos e seis meses de prisão pelos crimes de corrupção passiva e lavagem de dinheiro na ação penal envolvendo um tríplex no Guarujá.

          02- Na segunda instância a pena foi aumentada para 12 anos e um mês. Em seguida, no dia 5 de abril, Moro expediu o mandado de prisão.

          03 - Em abril de 2019, numa decisão unânime, 5ª Turma do STJ manteve condenação de Lula e reduziu a pena por corrupção passiva e lavagem de dinheiro de 12 anos e 1 mês para 8 anos e 10 meses de prisão.

          E a "terceira instância" (Supremo Tribunal Federal) anulou a condenação do STJ.

    2. You are misinformed . We Brazilian are no going to accept a criminal , convicted to past 14 years in jail ( and he just passed only 2 years in prison cause the Judges of the Supreme Court , chosen by him in past, decided to put him free) to get in power again. The fraude in this election was so clear that even a child could understand .
      We won’t loose our freedom . We don’t accept the left power to destroy our country like in others in Latin America . Period .

    1. download and save the pdf to your computer using the down arrow on the right side of the top of the document next to the printer

  3. Benford’s broken law was cited and immediately ignored in 2020 US stolen election, but I guess I should be worried about Brazil. I can not even get honest election mechanisms in my HOA election.

  4. don't worry about us my North American brothers, we are going to the streets right now and we know that nothing was investigated or verified in this final stretch, the people are not stupid to accept monocratic orders. It is only in the meeting of the people with the police that democracy prevails. As we sing in our independence anthem: "Either leave the homeland free or die for Brazil!"

  5. Lamentamos que a população dos EUA se deixaram roubar. Nós brasileiros não queremos isso para a nossa nação. Quem sabe estamos dando um pontapé para que outros países façam o mesmo quando descobrirem frauda em suas urnas.

  6. I downloaded the data for some states ('UF's) to replicate the analyses done in the document but did not arrive at the results the author arrived at. Could the author please explain what numbers he used to get '1st digit' and '2nd digit' from? I tried the analyses using 'number of votes' and 'percentage of votes', but neither arrived in the same numbers. Could the author elaborate on this?

  7. Not to mention that in 2nd round Bolsonaro, fully supported by agro, had 0 votes against 360 for Lula in some cities in midwest, the most agro region in Brazil. Very very odd.

  8. o sistema eleitoral brasileiro é auditável e transparente, várias entidades e qualquer cidadão pode participar do início do processo eleitoral (desde a verificação, criação do sistema da urnas até a cerimônia de lacre das urnas) da contagem dos votos (que pode ser feita de forma paralela inclusive)

    seus questionamentos são de alguém que nem ao menos pesquisou o nosso sistema eleitoral, antes de ter uma opinião.

    1. Você é cachorrinho do Lula. Pra defender um ladrão, deve ser mau caráter igual a ele, ou tem interesses escusos na eleição fraudulenta do vagabundo ladrão.
      Lula foi condenado em três instâncias sim, e só fi "descondenado", porque já tinha um braço de sua facção criminosa dentro do STF.
      Ele foi condenado em primeira instância, depois pelo Tribunal de Curitiba e, em seguida pelo STJ, sendo os dois últimos em colegiado por unanimidade.
      No STF o militante Fachin resolveu jogar todo o dinheiro gasto com a processo no lixo. Quem defende vagabundos se iguala a eles.

    2. auditable, you can only be kidding...
      that was what was proposed to the STF and Chamber of Deputies after they denied the printed vote, which occurs in the USA for example...
      Yes, we were robbed and even more, the TSE is composed of a minister who not even career judges and public examinations are an example, President Alexandre de Morais just google it there and you see that he was always a lawyer...

  9. The institutions were clearly supporting a corrupt thug and making everything they could for our president difficult. It is clear that there is some kind of manipulation in the results.
    We have been making public demonstrations of support for President Bolsonaro for more than a year, and the opponent could not go out on the street because he was harassed, cursed.
    We cannot accept this result. We don't want communism in our country.
    We are with our captain Bolsonaro.

  10. lolololol tons of butthurt Bolsominions on here who can´t accept defeat and that the electronic voting system is suddenly ´hackable´ and the election was ´corrupt´ for the first time in Brasilian history*

    * the one that Bolsonaro lost

  11. My dear foreign fellows, you have absolutely no idea what 's going on here im Bazil. Stop believing in whatever news you read. The media is lying. Bolsonaro's supporters manifestations clearly show we do not accept all the massive movements, illegal attacks against him held before the elections. The media did everything in their power to shut him up. These maneuvers were so absurd, showing the leftists would do anything they could to take the power. They were not worried about winning the elections at all. They wanted to regain the power, no matter what and did so at any costs. Even before the elections, they shut people up through censorship. They overtook our freedom of expression!

    As to the manifastations, please, you do have to admit they were peaceful, held by families and not by drugdealers or criminals (who wanted Lula as President at any cost and now celebrate his victory holding their rifles in triumph) This is outrageous. We are not going to accept a man with no integrity or dignity, who was serving time in prision for crimes he did commit, to run the presidence of our beloved country!

    At last, please, HE IS NOT A SOCIAL DEMOCRAT!!! There's no such thing in Latin America, for God's sake!!! I'm sorry, but you are completely misinformed. He is a leftist dictator, who supports all the left dictators in Latin America!!! Marxism, communism, censorship, WE DON"T WANT IT HERE! We want our democracy, our freedom of speech and expression. We want to protect our childten and our people, we won't accept fraud and forged elections, nor a convict criminal running our Contry!

  12. Brazil will win this fight and they will get the throw Lula and the supreme court communists in prison or kill them. I am from the U.S. but my ex wife is from Brazil. Brazil is a strong and very patriotic country. I wish the U.S. was the same... The U.S. has lost its way.. This will not happen to Brazil, they are much stronger and smarter than people in the U.S. GO Brazil !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Throw out Lula and the communist losers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



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