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Yesterday was the Sainte Barbe, a Christian celebration during which we are planting wheat, to schedule the harvest at the end of June, but it was also the Saint Barnier (name of the prime minister) within the French parliament. The policy makers have harvested the government with a voting scythe.

After a major slap in the face to "Renew" (Macron's party) during the European parliament election (15%), the second mandate badly-elected French president (less than 24% of voters) had to dismiss the parliament to respond to the population's dissatisfaction right before the Olympic Games. This followed a lost election for Macron's party, enhancing a major division within French society. Three blocks emerged from it -- far left (NUPES), Center/Dems/Reps (Macron), Far right and allies (Marine Le Pen/Ciotti). Elections results expressing the disgust of the population will shift policy starboard. The second round of the parliamentary elections were totally rigged by other parties associating themselves in a very strange way regarding their respective political lines to cross out Marine LePen's route to Matignon (location of the prime minister office). After almost three months to choose a prime minister, Macron was struggling auditing so many candidates in an economical context.

In September, finally Michel Barnier, 72, was appointed to the PM office; the former European commissioner used to be an old hand at negotiations, the type of very necessary skill to handle the bucket of rattlesnakes running around within the parliament. The period that followed, exposed several dangerous hot spot looming:

- The debt -- Bruno Lemaire (Minister of Economy) and the inexperienced Gabriel Attal (former PM who jumped from ministry to ministry by period of semester), lied about the level of indebtedness. We discovered it was representing +107.4% of the GDP and not 105.6% with an unexplainable missing trillion euro in the budget. Somebody might have gone vacationing at the Caïman island five star resort...

- The Mercosur, an agreement the EU wants to signup against the interests of French farmers. That is quite ironic when the same institution is claiming they need to fight against CO2 emission but are working hard to make sure the Argentine beef is hitting our supermarket... Von Der Leyen might ignore that in the French Alps we have cows. We are actually envisioning through this episode the limits of the EU, favoring ideology and the divergent interest of the participating countries. The EURRS is about to collapse.

- The financial support and the dangerous escalation & involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, when the french sovereign services are collapsing totally (Police, army, hospitals, education)...

Establishing a balanced budget was like asking an elephant to walk on eggs. Actually, the elephant had recruited 40 ministers in a country of 68M people (26 in USA, 8 in Russia) in a context showing the country is totally bankrupt. The decision to force the budget with the article 49.3 (allowing the prime minister to bypass the parliament) had infuriated the deputies across the board for several reasons:

- A massive increase in taxes that would kill the economy forcing the population to tie up its spending already significantly constrained

- A massive increase in state spending when it should be restricted cutting off hundreds of useless agencies (€1/2 Billion to maintain a national video library, hundreds of millions to pay lawyers avoiding expulsion of our territories those illegal migrants...)

- Etc...

We don't forget the legal turmoil in which Marine Le Pen was facing right before the vote in a pseudo fabricated story of EU funds inappropriately allocated to parliamentary attachés. Certainly a way for the government to force her approval of the budget... But it didn't work, Marine Le Pen decided to favor her electorate.

Actually Barnier was smart enough to avoid proposing the budget vote before the S&P decision to maintain or downgrade the quality of French debt... He was also pressuring the deputies with the fear of financial chaos if the budget was rejected. He was totally wrong in his strategy approach and also in his rigidity to maintain such a level of non-necessary spending.

The budget sanction was inevitable and therefore the legitimacy of the government, far right and left, wanted to expel Barnier from office with convergent reasons despite divergence on a major point -- immigration. 8:20 PM the sentence is falling : 331 vs 574 (58%) deputies voted government censorship. Game over for Barnier and Macron...

Now what ? Macron cannot leave the country without a government in the fashion of last summer. The budget will be maintained the way it was established for the year 2024. Two ministers will be badly missed if not re-appointed within the future government -- Alexandre Portier who faced off minister of education Anne Genetet regarding the wokeism and gender theory within school, and Bruno Retailleau, minister of internal security regarding his zero tolerance policy on emigration.

Moreover, a new song is on air now -- the legitimacy of Macron. In a media poll 72% of the population expressed that he is the worse president France ever known, but his ego is so blind that he will privilege his career, refusing the step down. He can also trigger article 16 (he is dreaming to become a monarch but that would not be of the taste in the street). He will refuse the far left to govern; is he going to appoint Marine Le Pen as prime minister to avoid major political protests? Nevertheless her nomination will provoke the far left and we will see major contestation in the street.

France has become a real caldera volcano, Yellowstone style... Good luck to the future PM !

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