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Retail Sales Continue To Struggle But Housing Is On Fire

Retail Sales Continue To Struggle But Housing Is On Fire

Retail Sales unexpectedly missed this morning with August data, showing the economy is recovering in fits and starts. However, the National Association of Home Builders showed optimism at the highest levels ever. Americans are in the throws of a massive migration from Democrat-controlled urban centers that are rife with violence, protests, crime, and lack of police presence, security. That house in the suburbs looks might fine at the moment.

In related news, CDM has anecdotal evidence that although demand is strong, lending for new construction is still lagging, causing consternation among builders, especially for commercial projects.

Markets are cautiously higher this morning, waiting on the release from the Federal Reserve in the afternoon, and looking for guidance on how long rates will stay low and thoughts on the economic recover from the FOMC minutes. The Fed’s actions are especially under a microscope since Congress remains deadlocked on any further coronavirus relief prior to the election.

Retail Sales ex-Autos (MoM) (Aug) printed at 0.7% vs 0.9% consensus estimate.

Retail Sales Control Group (Aug) printed at -0.1% vs 0.5% estimate.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) printed at 0.6% vs 1.0% estimate.

Business Inventories (Jul) printed at the estimate of 0.1%.

NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) printed at 83 vs 78 estimate.

EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change printed at -4.389M vs 1.271M estimate.

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4 comments

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Don Parker September 18, 2020 at 9:17 am

As long as the Fed continues to keep interest rates at their current level, barring another “black swan” event, housing should remain a good investment. As for retail sales, maybe people are wising up to the fact that a day of economic reckoning is in our future and the only things that can protect wealth are real tangible assets. Not the latest doodads, and fashions.

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