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Baris Discloses Coming CDMedia/Big Data Poll in Georgia To Be Released Today

July 19, 2022 ARIZONA

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,298 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and methodology on Google Sheets.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Voters in Arizona Set to Approve Key Ballot Measures in November

Overwhelming Support for Stricter Voter Identification Requirements for Mail-In Ballots and In-Person Voting

Arizona Midterm Ballot Measures (2022)

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds voters in Arizona are set to approve at least two key ballot measures this November, while others fall short. The results indicate voters in the Grand Canyon State are inclined to strengthen voter identification requirements, as well as make it more difficult to amend the constitution and pass future ballot initiatives.

In November, voters will decide whether to allow in-state tuition for residents without legal citizenship status. If approved, the ballot measure would necessarily repeal related provisions of Proposition 300, which passed in a statewide referendum back in 2006. As of now, voters are leaning toward opposing the ballot measure.

Only 34.3% say they’ll vote “Yes” to support and 47.7% would vote “No” to oppose passage, with 18.0% undecided. Of those most certain to vote, the measure is failing 49.5% to 34.5%. Republicans (63.3% to 24.1%) are more likely than Democrats (31.8% to 50.3%) and Independents/Others (45.3% to 29.5%) to vote “No” over “Yes”.

In the wake of the 2020 election and statewide audit, Arizona has been at the forefront of the battle over election reforms. Voters will also decide whether to require a date of birth and voter identification number for mail-in ballots and to eliminate a two-document alternative to photo identification for in-person voting.

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds overwhelming support for this ballot measure, with 62.5% saying they will vote “Yes” to approve it and only 23.4% intend to vote “No”, with another 14.1% undecided. Republicans (78.5% to 11.5%) and Independents/Others (63.3% to 18.8%) are more likely than Democrats (43.3% to 41.3%) to vote “Yes” over “No”.

By a 45.4% to 23.5% margin, voters are leaning toward creating the Office of Lieutenant Governor, which will be elected on a joint ticket mirroring the presidential election. However, the ballot measure has not yet achieved majority support and 31.1% remain undecided.

Voters in Arizona are also set to approve the ballot measure to change voting threshold requirements to a supermajority (60%) rather than a simple majority on all future ballot initiatives. A 53.3% majority say they will vote “Yes” compared to only 18.0% who will vote “No”, with 28.7% undecided.

“Overall, the ideological mood of the electorate is leaning toward Republicans and more conservative policy,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said of the results. “Independent and third party voters are more aligned with Republican voters on these four ballot initiatives.”

As of July 24, 2022, eight statewide ballot measures were certified in Arizona for the midterm elections on November 8, 2022. The Arizona Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative failed to gather the 356,467 valid signatures required and thus did not make the ballot. Below are the four of eight gauged by the CD Media Big Data Poll, to include instructional prompts used to explain each to respondents.

  • In-State Tuition for Non-Citizen Residents Measure: Repeals provisions of Proposition 300 (2006) to allow in-state tuition for non-citizen residents.
  • Voter Identification Requirements for Mail-In Ballots and In-Person Voting Measure: Requires date of birth and voter identification number for mail-in ballots and eliminates two-document alternative to photo ID for in-person voting.
  • Create the Office of Lieutenant Governor Amendment: Creates the office of Lieutenant Governor to be elected on a joint ticket with the governor and to succeed the governor in the case of a vacancy.
  • 60% Supermajority Vote Requirement for Constitutional Amendments and Ballot Initiatives Amendment: Requires a three-fifths (60%) supermajority vote to pass ballot initiatives (both statutes and constitutional amendments) and legislatively referred amendments.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,298 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 4-cycle vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and methodology on Google Sheets.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Republicans Lead Generic Ballot By 9 Points In Arizona

Republicans Hold Enthusiasm Edge, Undecided Voters Strongly Disapprove of Joe Biden

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Republicans leading Democrats on the Generic Ballot in Arizona, 49.3% to 39.5%. Maricopa County, which represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide, is breaking for the Republican candidate 50.2% to 38.9%. Democrats lead in Pima County 51.1% to 36.5%, but trail 55.3% to 33.8% in the rest of the state.

That roughly 9-point lead is far outside the survey sampling error and indicates all three competitive congressional districts in the state Lean Republican ahead of November.

“Historically, the incumbent party in power nationally performs poorly in first-term incumbent midterms,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Given the closeness of the state over the last three election cycles, we shouldn’t at all be surprised by these findings.”

“If we scratch beneath the surface and dig a little deeper into the results, the findings reveal clear advantages for Republicans heading into November.”

OLD Arizona House (2021)NEW Arizona House (2022)
4 Solid DEM/Biden3 Solid DEM/Biden
3 Solid GOP/Trump3 Solid GOP/Trump
2 Competitive/Battlegrounds3 Competitive/Battlegrounds

Congressional Districts: 9 Seats

Men prefer the Republican candidate 54.7% to 35.0% and women are split 44.2% to 43.8%. The last election in which the two party vote split among women was 2010, a year in which the GOP posted historic gains to retake the U.S. House of Representatives.

Far fewer Democrats (53.2%) than Republicans (64.5%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, an 11.3% enthusiasm edge for the GOP. Among extremely enthusiastic voters, Republicans hold a 57.0% to 38.8%, edge, and among “very” enthusiastic voters, 48.2% to 41.5%. Democrats lead among “moderately” (40.7% to 33.1%) and “slightly” (34.4% to 32.1%) enthusiastic voters.

Unfortunately for Democrats, the unenthused will represent a much smaller share of the electorate in November. Nearly all voters (97.4%) who reported being “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November. That certainty to vote compares to just 55.7% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, 39.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic, and 57.9% who are “not at all” enthusiastic.

Of those certain to vote, Republicans lead 52.3% to 39.8%. Democrats lead 38.2% to 34.4% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (less than certain but ≥ 50/50 likelihood).

White voters back Republicans for the U.S. Congress 54.0% to 36.4%, while Hispanic voters still lean slightly toward Democrats, 45.5% to 38.8%. Independent and third party voters support the Republican candidate, 44.0% to 29.9%.

The Generic Ballot could also signal deep trouble for first-term incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly. As the CD Media Big Data Poll previously reported, Kelly is fighting for his political survival in the U.S. Senate against Republican frontrunner Blake Masters. The incumbent holds a slight 3-point lead, or 43.7% to 40.6% with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.

However, of those who are undecided in the race for U.S. Senate, 54.1% strongly disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president and only 4.1% strongly approve. Overall, the president is underwater with undecided voters in the senatorial contest by an astonishing 76.5% to 19.1%.

“The relationship between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance for their party candidate is well established,” Director Baris stated. “The president is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and that dissatisfaction will weigh down Democratic candidates up and down the ballot this fall.”

The CD Media Big Data Poll also previously reported Biden’s approval rating in Arizona at only 36.2% and disapproval has skyrocketed to 62.0%. Roughly half (49.5%) of all likely midterm voters strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while only 13.3% strongly approve, resulting in an intensity index of -36.2.

Of those who are undecided on the Generic Ballot, 43.6% strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing and another 25.4% somewhat disapprove. Just over a quarter combined approve of the Democratic president.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Mark Kelly Fighting for Political Life in U.S. Senate Against Blake Masters

Kelly Holds Slight Lead, But Undecided Voters Strongly Disapprove of Joe Biden

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Kelly fighting for his political life in the U.S. Senate against Republican frontrunner Blake Masters in Arizona. Kelly holds a slight early lead over Masters 43.7% to 40.6% with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.

Of those who are undecided, 54.1% strongly disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president and only 4.1% strongly approve. Overall, the president is underwater with undecided voters in the senatorial contest by an astonishing 76.5% to 19.1%. According to Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, those voters are highly unlikely to vote for the incumbent Democrat.

“The relationship between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance for their party candidate is well established,” Director Baris stated. “The president is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and that dissatisfaction will weigh down Democratic candidates up and down the ballot this fall.”

As CD Media previously reported, Biden’s approval rating in Arizona is only 36.2% and disapproval has skyrocketed to 62.0%. Roughly half (49.5%) of all likely midterm voters strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while only 13.3% strongly approve, resulting in an intensity index of -36.2. White voters have the strongest disapproval at 54.1%, but strong support for the president is the lowest among Hispanic voters at only 11.2%.

“Historically speaking, the 2022 midterm elections are expected to be difficult for the incumbent party in power nationally,” Director Baris added. “But if we scratch beneath the surface and dig a little deeper into the results, the findings indeed reveal multiple Republican advantages.”

Far fewer Democrats (53.2%) than Republicans (64.5%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, an 11.3% enthusiasm edge for the GOP. Masters leads Kelly among extremely enthusiastic voters, 46.9% to 40.0%.

Nearly all voters (97.4%) who reported being “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November. That certainty to vote compares to just 55.7% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, 39.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic, and 57.9% who are “not at all” enthusiastic.

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll

Of those most likely to vote, the two candidates are tied at 43.3%. Kelly leads 45.5% to 27.2% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).


CD Media Big Data Poll: Kari Lake, Katie Hobbs In Tight Race For Arizona Governor

Undecided Voters in Grand Canyon State Strongly Disapprove of Joe Biden

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in a tight race for governor of Arizona. Lake holds a slight early lead over Hobbs 39.4% to 38.1% with 11.2% opting for someone else and another 11.2% undecided.

“Historically speaking, the 2022 midterm elections are expected to be difficult for the incumbent party in power nationally,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “But if we scratch beneath the surface and dig a little deeper into the results, the findings indeed reveal multiple Republican advantages.”

Far fewer Democrats (53.2%) than Republicans (64.5%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, an 11.3% enthusiasm edge for the GOP. Lake edges Hobbs among extremely enthusiastic voters, 45.4% to 37.8%, and among “very” enthusiastic voters, 38.7% to 38.3%. Hobbs leads among those unenthused, including “not at all” enthusiastic, 41.3% to 26.2%.

“The closer we get to Election Day, three things will happen,” Director Baris, added. “Third party vote share will decline, voters will begin to pay more attention and we will begin to tighten the likely voter screen.”

“Come Labor Day, all things being equal, all three will most likely have benefitted Lake and her narrow lead will grow.”

Nearly all voters (97.4%) who reported being “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November. That certainty to vote compares to just 55.7% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, 39.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic, and 57.9% who are “not at all” enthusiastic,

Of those most likely to vote, Lake leads 41.7% to 38.4%. Hobbs leads 36.9% to 28.4% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).

Unlike Hobbs, Lake has faced competition for the gubernatorial nomination, though she leads her closest rival by double digits ahead of the primary on August 2. But for now, the competition has resulted in more self-identified Republicans opting for “someone else” in the hypothetical matchup than her opponent across the aisle.

That disparity in base consolidation is being more than offset by a large lead for the Republican among independent and third party voters. Lake leads Hobbs 39.8% to 30.3% among non-two party voters. Further, Director Baris expects that disparity to be temporary.

“Come November, whomever is the Republican nominee will almost assuredly be able to count on 9 in 10 base support,” he said. “This is a first-term incumbent midterm and while this is rather common for early polling during competitive primaries, it is almost unheard-of for it to remain throughout the general election.”

Hobbs leads Lake among urban voters, but trails among rural and suburban voters. Men prefer Lake 44.6% to 32.8%, while women back Hobbs 43.2% to 34.6%.

Of those who are undecided, 42.7% strongly disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president and only 7.0% strongly approve. Overall, the president is underwater with undecided voters in the gubernatorial contest, 27.5% to 66.1%.

“The relationship between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance is well established,” Director Baris concluded. “The president is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and that dissatisfaction will weigh down Democratic candidates up and down the ballot this fall.”


Biden Approval in Arizona Craters Among Hispanics, Disapproval Nears 60%

Strong Approval for Biden Lowest Among Hispanics, Strong Disapproval Highest Among Whites

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Midterm Election Poll

President Joe Biden’s approval rating in Arizona is only 36.2% and disapproval has skyrocketed to 62.0%, the CD Media Big Data Poll finds. This dissatisfaction with the president statewide extends to his party and is weighting down statewide candidates ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

“The first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996 is now underwater with every single racial demographic except one,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Mr. Biden is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and it will impact Democratic candidates on the ballot this November.”

Worth noting, neither of the two most recent Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state did so with majorities. Clinton won the state with 46.5% to 44.3% over Bob Dole the year Ross Perot earned 8.0%. Biden’s margin was only 0.3% at 49.4%.

Now, roughly half (49.5%) of all likely midterm voters strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while only 13.3% strongly approve, resulting in an intensity index of -36.2. White voters have the strongest disapproval at 54.1%, but strong support for the president is the lowest among Hispanic voters at only 11.2%.

Overall, only 33.3% of White voters approve and they are being dwarfed by the 65.1% who disapprove. In another ominous sign for Democrats, Biden is underwater with the critical Hispanic demographic 58.5% to 39.2%.

“Granted exit polls should always be more of a guidepost than Gospel, but they showed Mr. Biden carrying Hispanics 61% to 37%,” Mr. Baris added. “Many Hispanics who disapprove of the president are self-identifying as independents no matter their registration, and they remain undecided in key races simply because they’re not paying close attention yet.”

“It’s not even Labor Day.”

The president is enjoying majority support only among Black voters in Arizona, a demographic set to represent single digits in the electorate this November. Still, 68.4% approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, though that includes only 25.8% who strongly approve. Overall disapproval among the most loyal Democratic voting bloc has shot to 30.5%.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Blake Masters Holds 11-Point Lead In Arizona Republican Primary For U.S. Senate

Trump Winning the Battle for Control Over the Republican Party in Arizona

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Primary Election
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Primary Election

Blake Masters has surged to 30.8% and now leads his closest rival in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona by 11 points, the CD Media Big Data Poll finds. Jim Lamon (19.6%) and Mark Brnovich (18.2%) are locked in a tight race for second place, with 24.2% still undecided.

Michael McGuire and Justin Olson round out fourth and fifth with 4.8% and 2.1%, respectively.

“Blake Masters has risen steadily over the last few days and has now broken double-digits,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “His coalition is more diverse and more motivated to vote than any other in this race.”

“Without a doubt, the Trump-endorsed ticket is in the lead.”

The Grand Canyon State has become the latest battleground for control over the Republican Party. Former President Donald J. Trump has endorsed Blake Masters for U.S. Senate and Kari Lake. The Republican Establishment represented by former Vice President Mike Pence and Governor Doug Ducey are either directly or indirectly supporting their opponents.

As CD Media previously reported, Lake leads Karrin Taylor Robson, 43.1% to 28.8%, with 18% undecided. In both cases, enthusiasm and likelihood to vote favor the America First ticket. Masters leads among those who are “extremely” enthusiastic by 14 points, 34.8.0% to 21.4% for Lamon. Of those who are “very” enthusiastic, Masters leads 29.8% to 20.8% for Brnovich.

Among voters who are “certain to vote or have already voted”, Masters leads 32.1% to 20.6% for Lamon and 17.5% for Brnovich.

In Maricopa, which accounts for roughly 6 in 10 votes statewide, Masters leads 30.2% to 19.4% over Lamon. Brnovich takes 18.2% of the vote in the state’s largest county. In Pima, Masters holds a slight edge over Lamon 23.7% to 21.1%, with Brnovich close behind at 20.7%. The remaining counties are also supporting Masters over Lamon and Brnovich by a combined 35.7% to 19.5% and 16.5%.

Primary participation and political leanings reveal Republicans will have a turnout advantage on August 2, as well as in November. When asked, 56.1% of likely primary voters report they will vote in the Republican primary, while 43.9% will vote in the Democratic primary.

Only 1.9% of Republicans claim they will vote in the Democratic primary, while 3.7% of Democrats report they will cross the aisle. Independent and third-party voters are overwhelmingly participating in the Republican contests, 61.6% to 38.4%.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Kari Lake Holds Double-Digit Lead In Republican Primary For Governor In Arizona

Trump Winning the Battle for Control Over the Republican Party in Arizona

Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Primary Election
Source: CD Media Big Data Poll Arizona Primary Election

The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Kari Lake leading by a double-digit margin over Karrin Taylor Robson, 43.1% to 28.8%, with 18% undecided. Matt Salmon, who dropped out and endorsed Robson, will still appear on the ballot and placed a distant third at 4.3%. Scott Neely and Paola Tulliani-Zen round out fourth and fifth with 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively.

The Grand Canyon State has become the latest battleground for control over the Republican Party. Former President Donald J. Trump has endorsed Kari Lake, while the Republican Establishment represented by former Vice President Mike Pence and Governor Doug Ducey have come out in support of Robson.

“‘While there was some evidence Robson was gaining last week, our polling indicates Lake has begun to close that door on her competition,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, stated. “Over the weekend, the frontrunner gained with every key demographic and has a much easier path to victory.”

Voting is already underway and Lake is dominating among voters who have yet to vote but plan to vote before Election Day (41.7% to 25.8%) and those who plan to vote on Election Day (46.7% to 20.5%). Robson holds a statistically insignificant lead among those who have already cast a ballot, 42.5% to 41.9%.

Enthusiasm and likelihood to vote also favor Lake, who leads among those who are “extremely” enthusiastic by 18 points, 49.0% to 30.6%. Of those who are “very” enthusiastic, Lake leads by a whopping 20-point margin, 43.8% to 23.4%. Voters who are “certain to vote or have already voted” back Lake over Robson, 45.5% to 30.2%.

In a more ominous sign for Robson, the two largest counties are backing Lake.

In Maricopa, which accounts for about 6 in 10 votes, voters are breaking her way 43.0% to 30.8% over Robson. In Pima, Lake leads 41.5% to 23.6%. The remaining counties are also supporting Lake by a combined 44.0% to 26.4%.

Primary participation and political leanings reveal Republicans will have a turnout advantage on August 2, as well as in November. When asked, 56.1% of likely primary voters report they will vote in the Republican primary, while 43.9% will vote in the Democratic primary. Only 1.9% of Republicans claim they will vote in the Democratic primary, while 3.7% of Democrats report they will cross the aisle.

Independent and third-party voters are overwhelmingly participating in the Republican contests, 61.6% to 38.4%.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs leads the Democratic primary field with 53.8% to 12.2% for Marco Lopez. Aaron Lieberman, who also withdrew but will appear on the ballot, still draws 3.9%. Roughly 3 in 10 (30.4%) Democratic primary voters in Arizona remain undecided even though it’s widely believed Sectary Hobbs is running essentially uncontested.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Primary and Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,172 likely primary voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.9% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. The sampling error for Republican primary voters (N=644) is ± 3.9% at a 95% confidence interval, and the sampling error for Democratic primary voters (N=504) is ± 4.4% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on Google Sheets.


May 12, 2022 Georgia

CD Media Big Data Poll: Georgia Voters Have Little Faith In Election Fairness, Party Leadership Neutrality

Democrats Trust Party, State Leaders on Elections More than Republicans, Independents

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds Democratic voters trust their party and state leaders to remain neutral in primaries and oversee fair elections more than other voters. Republicans and independents have little faith in party and state leaders to conduct primary and general elections fairly.


Thinking about primary elections, how much trust do you have in your party leaders to remain neutral and allow voters to decide on nominees?

When it comes to party neutrality in primaries, a third (33.3%) of Democratic voters say they have “a great deal” of trust in their party leaders. That compares to roughly only 1 in 5 (21.3%) Republicans and 1 in 10 (10.3%) independent and third party voters. 


One-third of Republicans (33.3%) and a majority (57.4%) of independents at least expressed they have “not very much” trust, to include “none at all” coming in at 5.0% and 17.4%, respectively.


Only 3.5% of Democrats said “none at all”.


“Even though we saw decent percentages among those who expressed ‘a fair amount’ of trust, it’s not exactly a glowing endorsement,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “The chosen scale really does underscore how soft voters are on this issue of trust in elections.”


By area, both urban and rural voters interestingly express the least amount of trust in their party leaders to remain neutral during primaries, though urban voters also express the highest amount of trust, with 30.3% saying “a great deal”. That’s nearly half the percentage of rural voters (15.5%) who say the same.


Thinking about general elections, how much trust do you have in state leaders to oversee free and fair contests?The same is true by area when voters are asked about their trust in state leaders to oversee free and fair elections. In urban areas, 29.0% expressed “a great deal” of trust versus only 14.0% in rural areas. Suburban voters came in at 21.5%.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Herschel Walker Still Leads Raphael Warnock For U.S. Senate In Georgia

Walker Holds Commanding Lead Over Rivals in GOP Senate Primary

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds Republican challenger Herschel Walker leads incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock 45.7% to 42.8%. That’s a slightly narrower margin than the 5-point lead the poll found for Walker in September.


In the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, the former football star holds a commanding lead at 58.6%, with 18.6% undecided. Gary Black, the closest rival, trails far behind at 7.6% of the primary vote.

“Herschel Walker is very likely to be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in Georgia and has consistently led the Democratic incumbent,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “While the race tightened somewhat, the fundamentals still suggest Walker will be the favorite in November.”


“Walker has consistently led in the suburbs statewide and that bodes well for his chances among undecided voters in the suburbs outside of Atlanta.”


By race, white voters overwhelmingly support Mr. Walker, 63.2% to 25.6%, a margin that even exceeds Donald Trump in a rematch against Joe Joe. More than 3 in 4 (76.1%) of black voters back Senator Warnock, while 12.6% back the Republican.

Worth noting, Walker is underperforming both Trump and Generic Republicans among Hispanic voters. While they appear to be trending toward Trump and the GOP ahead of the midterms—slightly backing Republicans 43.8% to 43.4% and Trump by a wider 47.0% to 41.9% margin—Senator Warnock leads this bloc 48.7% to 36.1%.


By area, Warnock leads Walker only among urban voters, 64.1% to 25.3%. Walker leads Warnock among rural voters, 58.9% to just 26.8%, and in the suburbs by 3 points, 46.2% to 43.3%.


Independent and third party voters break for Mr. Walker 42.5% to 34.4%.


The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia interviewed 1,519 likely voters statewide via Peer-to-Peer SMS to an online survey panel from May 8 to May 11, 2022. The survey sampling error is ± 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent national voter file demographics in the state to include gender, age, race and region. The likely voter screen includes vote history and self-reported likelihood to vote. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Full crosstabs.


CD Media Big Data Poll: Trump Takes Large Lead Over Biden In Georgia

Support for Joe Biden Plummets in the Peach State

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds former President Donald Trump holds a large lead over President Joe Biden in the Peach State, 46.4% to 35.3%. Of those who voted in 2020, Trump leads Biden 47.5% to 36.9%.

“Joe Biden is now extremely unpopular in the state of Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “He was the first Democratic nominee to carry the state since Bill Clintonin 1992, but now voters would rather see the 45th President back in office.”

“Minority voters have shifted considerably toward Donald Trump since 2020 and the drop in support among white voters for the current president has been devastating.”

”By race, white voters overwhelmingly support the 45th President, 61.9% to 22.0%, and there are serious signs of fracture among Democrats’ strongest voting blocs. Only 61.0% of black voters back the 46th President. Former President Trump is earning 15.6% from black voters.

Worth noting, Trump is outperforming Republicans on the Generic Ballot among black voters. As CD Media previously reported, Republicans lead Democrats overall 47.2% to 40.4%, but only draw 13.9% support among the second largest voting bloc statewide.

The same is true among Hispanic voters in Georgia. While they appear to be trending toward Trump and the GOP ahead of the midterms—slightly backing Republicans 43.8% to 43.4% on the Generic Ballot—Hispanic voters in the state would support Trump by a wider 47.0% to 41.9% margin. 

Asian voters continue to back Democrats, 48.6% to 31.2%, and Biden over Trump, 43.7%to 31.6%.

CD Media Big Data Poll: Trump Takes Large Lead Over Biden In Georgia

By area, Biden leads Trump only among urban voters, 52.3% to 25.1%. Trump leads Biden among rural voters, 60.6% to just 20.4%, and in the suburbs by 10 points, 46.8% to 36.7%

.“Given the higher percentage of undecided voters in urban Georgia, specifically the Atlanta Metro Area, it’s not unreasonable to predict Biden’s overall support would be higher on Election Day,” Baris added. “The major problem for him is that undecided voters everywhere else are demographically less favorable to him.”

“Put bluntly, it’s much easier for Trump to reach a winning plurality, and even likely he would carry the state with an outright majority.”

By region, even the Atlanta Metro area has soured on Biden, while Trump leads in the Atlanta Suburbs 44.1% to 39.1%. The largest margin is in Central Georgia, where Trump leads 51.8% to 34.3%.

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia interviewed 1,519 likely voters statewide via Peer-to-Peer SMS to an online survey panel from May 8 to May 11, 2022. The survey sampling error is ± 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to representational voter file demographics in the state to include gender, age, race and region.The likely voter screen includes vote history and self-reported likelihood to vote. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.

Full crosstabs.


Kemp Holds Lead With Runoff Within The Margin

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leading the crowded field for the nomination, though his chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen within the sampling error. “Governor Kemp started the month ranging from the mid to high 50s and has now fallen just above 50%,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “While the path is certainly easier for the incumbent, he is currently below 50% in votes already cast and still needs to get out a core group of affluent suburban supporters who say they’ll vote early but have not yet voted.”

Of those who already voted, the governor remains just below the threshold at 48.1%, also within the sampling error. Early voting has shattered records in Georgia this year and 56.5% who plan to vote early but have not yet voted would back the incumbent, down from slightly over 60% earlier this month.

“That would explain why former Vice President Mike Pence and others are attempting to rally support for him,” Baris added. “He does not have the race locked up and it could be headed in the wrong direction.”

“If he doesn’t outperform among early voters from now until Election Day, he will fall below 50%.”

Meanwhile, voters say they will participate in the Republican primary (56.4%) in greater numbers than the Democratic primary (43.6%) this year, a margin that appears to be very close to current statewide statistics. Importantly, 57.5% of independent and third party voters will vote in the GOP primary, while 42.5% will vote in the Democratic primary.

While non-party affiliated voter participation is a good sign for the GOP in the fall, it’s a net negative for Brian Kemp. Only 43.9% of these voters are supporting him in the gubernatorial primary contest.

Looking ahead to the general election, both of the top two Republican candidates are leading Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris is skeptical about Kemp’s support among Democrats.

“Roughly a third of Democrats routinely approve of the job Kemp is doing as governor and about 8% say they would vote for him over Abrams. That compares to 5% of Democratic support for Perdue. In the end, partisan voters will return home and both candidates will garner base support and both lead their Democratic opponent among independents.”

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia interviewed 1,519 likely voters statewide via Peer-to-Peer SMS to an online survey panel from May 8 to May 11, 2022. The survey sampling error is ± 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent national voter file demographics in the state to include gender, age, race and region. The likely voter screen includes vote history and self-reported likelihood to vote. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Full crosstabs.


Republicans Hold Solid Lead On Generic Ballot In Georgia

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds Republicans hold a solid lead on the Generic ballot statewide. Looking ahead to November, 47.2% of likely voters say they’d vote for the Republican candidate, while just 40.4% say they’ll back the Democratic candidate.

“Georgia is over Joe Biden and it’s hurting Democrats up and down the ballot,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “Peach State Republicans are more likely than their rather depressed Democratic counterparts to vote in the midterms this November, but they also hold an advantage among independent voters.”

Among those certain to vote in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans lead Democrats 51.5% to 41.7%. Eighty-one percent (81.1%) of Republicans said they are “certain to vote” juxtaposed to 76.3% of Democrats. Men (80.2%) are significantly more likely than women (69.6%) to express certainty in voting, and they are backing Republicans by a massive 53.5% to 35.9% margin. Women are only slightly favoring the Democratic candidate, 44.5% to 41.6%.

Each party draws more than 9 in 10 base support, with 91.1% of Republicans backing their party’s candidate and 91.0% of Democrats doing the same. Independent and third-party voters back the GOP 38% to 29%, with a significant 27.4% remaining undecided.Democrats hold a large 60.4% to 26.1% lead amog urban voters, but Republicans lead among suburban and rural voters, 48.3% to 41.2% and 60.0% to 24.7%, respectively. By region, Democrats lead only in the Atlanta Metro 50.6% to 35.4%.

CD Media Big Data Poll: Republicans Hold Solid Lead On Generic Ballot In Georgia

White voters overwhelmingly plan to back the Republican candidate for the U.S. House 64.4% to 24.3%, while black voters back the Democratic candidate 72.5% to 13.9%. Hispanics in Georgia also appear to be trending toward the GOP ahead of the midterms, slightly backing Republicans 43.8% to 43.4%. Asian voters continue to back Democrats, 48.6% to 31.2%. The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia interviewed 1,519 likely voters statewide via Peer-to-Peer SMS to an online survey panel from May 8 to May 11, 2022. The survey sampling error is ± 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent national voter file demographics in the state to include gender, age, race and region. The likely voter screen includes vote history and self-reported likelihood to vote. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.


October 21, 2021 Virginia

View Interactive Crosstabs

The CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia was sponsored by CD Media and conducted by Big Data Poll, interviewing 1,061 likely voters statewide via online survey panel from October 16 to October 20, 2021. The survey sampling error is ± 3.0% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 35.6% Democratic, 34.4% Republican, 22.8% Independent and 7.2% Other. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.

CD Media/Big Data Poll: Virginia Gubernatorial Election Dead Even At 47%

A new CD Media Big Data Poll finds the Virginia gubernatorial election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin dead even at 47% among likely voters. The most important voting issues, the president’s waning approval rating, and a clear Republican enthusiasm edge have made the election for the next governor in the Old Dominion a toss-up.

Mr. Youngkin is offsetting a slight disadvantage among base crossover (4% vs.7%) with a roughly 10-point lead among independents and third-party voters, 48.3% to 38.0%. In 2017, then-Republican nominee Ed Gillespie only carried this group by just under 3 points.

“Democrats wanted this election to be about the pandemic, Medicaid expansion and other healthcare-related issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris noted. “But concern over the pandemic response and healthcare have taken a backseat to pocketbook issues and public education.”

When asked, voters cited the economy and jobs (25.5%) and cost of living/taxes/inflation (17.4%) as the two issues most important to their vote for governor this year. While coronavirus/vaccinations were cited by a combined 15.2% of voters, public education was closely behind at 14.0%.

When the state leaned Republican, Virginia had a long voting history of electing a governor from a party not in the White House during a president’s first term. Joe Biden won the state 54% to 44% last November, and now a significant percentage of his voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as president.

Only 45% of voters statewide approve of the job he’s doing, to include just 21% who strongly approve. That compares to 53% who disapprove, to include 43% who strongly disapprove. His overall approval stands at 34% among independent/other voters, a group he carried by nearly 20 points (57% to 38%) in 2020.

Democratic Governor Ralph Northam is in better shape than the president, though only slightly above water. While 47.0% approve of the job the current governor is doing, nearly as many (45.7%) disapprove. In 2017, Governor Northam easily carried the Hispanic vote, 67% to 32%.

“With Hispanics, Mr. McAuliffe is coming nowhere near the numbers Governor Northam enjoyed,” Mr. Baris added. “The Republican candidate has closed the gap considerably among Latinos and expanded on Mr. Gillespie’s lead among whites.”

White voters are backing Mr. Youngkin 56% to 39%, up from the 57% to 42% margin in 2017. Hispanic and Latino voters are backing Mr. McAuliffe 54% to 41%, a 20-point swing to the Republican candidate. Black voters are breaking 67% to 13% for the Democratic candidate, down from the 87% to 12% margin for Governor Northam. Asian voters break overwhelmingly for the former governor, 68% to 24%, while other racial groups back the Republican, 64% to 30%.

CD Media/Big Data Poll: Virginia Voters Oppose Transgender, Gender Neutral Bathrooms in Public Schools

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, public education and the culture wars are at the forefront of the race for the next governor of Virginia. A new CD Media Big Data Poll finds voters in the Old Dominion overwhelmingly oppose a slew of Democratic policies, to include transgender participation in sports, the use of locker rooms and bathrooms, as well as “gender neutral” bathrooms.

Voters in Virginia were asked to “tell us whether you support or oppose each of the following public school policies pertaining to transgender students.” When it comes to allowing transgender students to participate “on sports teams alongside the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female joining a biological female soccer team, or visa-versa,” 52.2% of voters say they oppose the policy and only 29% support it.

The Daily Wire first reported that officials at Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) appeared to cover up a sexual assault in order to preserve the policy of “gender neutral” bathrooms on campuses. On May 28, a 15-year old biological male sexually assaulted a 9th grade biological female in a gender neutral bathroom. Meanwhile, voters opposed that policy 48.3% to 38.9% even though only 44.8% indicated they were aware of the recent reports.

Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is currently locked in a dead heat against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the upcoming gubernatorial election, “called for an immediate investigation into the Loudoun County School Board for endangering our students and violating the Virginia Constitution.”

“When I’m governor, we’re going to take immediate action in regards to our kids’ safety,” he tweeted. “Our kids cannot wait.”

Mr. McAuliffe has made some missteps on the issue of public education, which was cited as a top voting issue by respondents in the survey. Following a debate gaffe, The Daily Wire exclusively obtained footage showing Mr. McAuliffe evading a reporter peppering him about Loudoun County prosecutor Buta Biberaj, who campaigned with the Democratic candidate earlier this month. An obviously startled Mr. McAuliffe asked the reporter whether she was “vaccinated” as he avoided questions.

Parental voters with children 18 and older were the least likely to support the policy, as 46.1% “strongly” opposed it and another 11.2% opposed it. Parents with school-aged children were also more likely to oppose the policy than voters without children of any age, at all.

Voters also oppose transgender students competing for sports scholarships against the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female competing against biological females for a track-and-field scholarship, by a wide 54.8% to 25.9% margin.

When asked if they supported or opposed transgender students using locker and bathroom facilities with the gender they identify with, such as biological males identifying as female sharing locker rooms and bathrooms with biological female students, 53.5% opposed it and only 28.8% supported it.

Lastly, the CD Media Big Data Poll in Virginia asked voters which came closer to their view on education. The widely accepted view of Critical Race Theory—or, the idea “children should be taught that the only way to overcome racism is to acknowledge U.S. society, laws and institutions are inherently racist and some are disadvantaged no matter what they do”—was chosen by just 21.9%.

The idea that “children should be taught to be merit-based, racially color blind and capable of being whomever if they work hard, not that they are disadvantaged based on the color of their skin” was chosen by two-thirds of voters (66.1%).

CD Media/Big Data Poll: Virginia Voters Overwhelmingly Support Proposals to Strengthen Election Integrity Laws

Voters in Virginia overwhelmingly support a series of proposals aiming to strengthen election integrity, such as photo identification (Voter ID), strict signature verification, bans on ballot harvesting and drop boxes, and more. A new CD Media Big Data Poll conducted among likely gubernatorial election voters in the Old Dominion finds a total 80.5% back laws “requiring all voters to provide photo identification to cast a vote,” while a paltry 11.4% oppose it and 8.1% are unsure.

That broad coalition includes 83% of white voters, 69% of black voters, 78.9% of Hispanic voters, 89.1% of Asians and 83.4% identifying with other races. By party, voter ID is backed by 71.2% of Democrats, 90.8% of Republicans and 78.3% identifying as Independent/Other.

“Signature verification, or the matching of voters’ signatures to driver’s license or an official voter registration card” was backed by 72.6%, to include 46.6% who strongly support it. Once again, large majorities of voters identifying with each party and racial demographic group support the verification procedure.

“Once again, we have found a deep disconnect between voters’ views on election reform and what is portrayed in the media,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Very small minorities with a disproportionately loud voice in media and the political process look to sow division over issues that enjoy widespread agreement.”

“Frankly, it’s sad and tragic.”

In fact, voters in Virginia express broad support for lesser known proposals facing similar opposition, while rejecting others that have been advanced by many states. A majority, 56.7%, support “bans on ballot harvesting and drop boxes,” rejecting “the practice of allowing non-government third parties to collect and deliver ballots not belonging to them.”

Fairfax County has already signaled that it will not only take days before they report results in full, but also the total number of votes cast countywide in the upcoming statewide election. But 71.1% would support the imposition of “Election Day deadlines for officials to report the total number of votes cast in their precincts/counties,” to include 45.9% who strongly support the proposal.


September 24, 2021 Georgia

Full Interactive Crosstabs & Methodology


The CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll for Fall 2021 was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,000 registered voters in Georgia via online survey panel from September 18 to September 22, 2021. The sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter demographics to include age, gender, race and region. Party identification or affiliation—separate from the more static party registration—is impacted by weighting aforementioned variables, but results are NOT weighted for party identification. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 38% Republican, 34% Democratic, and 28% Independent/Other.

Republicans Lead Democrats on Generic Ballot In Georgia

Republicans lead Democrats statewide on the Generic Ballot in Georgia ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, voters in the Peach State would back the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate by roughly 5 points, 43.7% to 38.7%.
Unaffiliated voters backed Republicans by about 3 points, 30.3% to 26.7%, though more than 1 in 3 (34.1%) remain undecided. Nine-percent (8.9%) chose someone else. Third Party voters are leaning toward Republicans by 5 points, 17.5% to 12.8%, with more than half (56.2%) undecided. Fourteen-percent (13.5%) say they would vote for someone else. Combined, Democrats trail Republicans among non-two-party voters by 4 points, 28.0% to 24.3%.

“As we saw in the election for U.S. Senate in Georgia, voters are leaning toward the Republican candidate outside the survey sampling error,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But there are key differences in the voting coalitions that result in Republican candidates for the U.S. House running slightly behind their presumptive nominee, Herschel Walker.”
“There are also more undecided voters for the lower chamber than the upper chamber.”
More than 6 in 10 white voters (62.3%) chose the Republican candidate, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.3%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.

By area, the Democratic candidate leads only among Urban voters, 58.3% to 25.4%, with 13.6% undecided. Republicans dominate among rural voters by more than 40 points, 61.3% to 19.9%. In the suburbs, Republicans hold a slight 2-point lead. 

By region, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House lead only in Atlanta Metro, 54.3% to 30.7%. Republicans lead in the North (48.5% to 31.7%), Central Georgia (51.9% to 26.9%), and the Coast / South (45.5% to 35.1%). The Atlanta Suburbs are just outside of the sampling error with Republicans leading by over 3 points, 44.2% to 40.8%.

CDMedia/Georgia Record/Big Data Poll – Republicans Lead Democrats on Generic Ballot In Georgia

Important to note, the survey was conducted before the crisis of the debt ceiling and the failure of the Democratic majority to force the Biden Administration’s infrastructure bill into law. As previously reported, the CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll found President Joe Biden’s approval rating deeply underwater in Georgia. Only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.
“There is a well-established, strong relationship between presidential approval rating and party performance in midterm elections,” Mr. Baris added. “History, Democrats were already facing headlines in the U.S. House and the plummeting approval rating for the president is not helping.”
“Mr. Biden’s job performance has become a significant drag on Democratic candidates in Georgia, particularly with truly persuadable voters.”
Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.

Forensic Audit for the 2020 Election

Voters in Georgia overwhelmingly support calls for a full forensic audit of the statewide vote in the 2020 presidential election, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. From requiring photo identification to bans on drop boxes and ballot harvesting, to greater oversight and constraints on late-arriving ballots, voters in the Peach State back favor election integrity over convenance.


“As we found in January, there is broad consensus for much more strict election reforms and proposals than we saw put on the books in Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Further, roughly 6 in 10 voters support calls from some Republicans to review the integrity of the vote last year.”

Herschel Walker Leads Raphael Warnock for U.S. Senate in Georgia

Herschel Walker leads incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate in Georgia, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. The former football star and Republican frontrunner leads the junior senator outside the survey’s sampling error by 5 points, 45.6% to 40.9%.

Unaffiliated voters backed Walker over Warnock by about 2 points, 37.6% to 36.0%, with roughly 1 in 4 (26.5%) undecided. Third Party voters backed Warnock 30.8% to 21.6%, with nearly half (47.6%) undecided.

“A more fired-up Republican base has already coalesced behind Herschel Walker and the crossover vote favors him, as well,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But the size and scope of Walker’s advantage over Raphael Warnock is blinding when drilling down on area and region.”

“The man is dominating among all the key regional demographics.”

Nearly two-thirds of white voters (65.0%) chose Walker, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.1%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.

Warnock leads among urban voters 56.2% to 29.2%, while Walker dominates among rural voters 62.6% to 22.3%. The two candidates are statistically tied in the suburbs at 44%.

By region, the Democrat leads only in Atlanta Metro, 58.2% to 29.4%. The Republican leads in the North (53.3% to 29.4%), Central Georgia (51.4% to 33.8%), and the Coast / South (48.5% to 35.4%). The Atlanta Suburbs are statistically tied with Walker leading by just over 1 point, 46.0% to 44.5%.

“Both Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate in Georgia lost on January 5 because they failed to generate enough turnout among the base in Central and South / Coastal Georgia regions,” Mr. Baris added. “Democrats didn’t win those races. Republicans lost them by not defending the former president.”

“Herschel Walker is not suffering from the same disadvantages.”

Mr. Walker was endorsed for the Republican nomination by former President Donald J. Trump, and will appear with him at the Georgia National Fairgrounds in Perry for the “Save America Rally” this Saturday.

Gubernatorial Vote Preference: Republican Primary

“President Donald J. Trump is the kingmaker in Georgia. However, if he chooses to sit out the gubernatorial primary, then Governor Kemp will have the edge,” Mr. Baris added. “If he does not, then whomever he endorses will benefit greatly and likely win the nomination.”

U.S. Senate Vote Preference: Republican Primary

“Hershel Walker is doing what he has always done best in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia,” Mr. Baris said. “He is running way ahead of the competition, holding large and commanding leads among all partisan affiliations who indicate they will vote in the GOP primary next year, in every region throughout the state and among every demographic.”


“The Republican nomination looks to be his for the taking.”

Governor Brian Kemp’s Approval Rating


Governor Brian Kemp currently enjoys positive ratings among all registered voters in Georgia, with just under half (49.7%) approving of his job performance and just over 4 in 10 (41.6%) disapproving. However, the pollster who conducted the survey says the results raised some questions about his re-election prospects.
“Governor Kemp is above water in Georgia, but beneath the surface he has some issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “More than 1 in 4 Republican voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as governor and independents are nearly tied.”


“He’s far more vulnerable in a general election than it appears at a glance,” Mr. Baris noted. “His overall approval rating is being propped up by a third of Democratic voters who are more likely than not to vote for their own candidate once one has been nominated.”

President Joe Biden’s Approval Rating

President Joe Biden’s approval rating is badly underwater in the Peace State, according to a new CD Media/ Georgia Record/Big Data Poll. In this tumultuous time of his presidency, only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.


“As we’ve seen nationally and in other battleground states, voters have quickly soured on President Joe Biden in Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “Statewide, he has taken a significant hit as roughly 14% of voters who backed his candidacy in November now disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while less than 6% who voted for former President Donald J. Trump approve.”


Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.


“Nearly twice as many voters strongly disapprove (43%) of his job performance juxtaposed to those who strongly approve (22%).”

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