Days after four-star Air Force Gen. Mik Minihan predicted that the U.S. will be at war with China by 2025 in a memo, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) has said that he agrees with Minihan.
In his memo, Minihan wrote, "I hope I am wrong... my gut tells me we will fight in 2025," regarding the possibility of direct conflict with China. The memo went on to note that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will likely keep a close eye on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election, which might prompt Chinese leader Xi Jinping to escalate already building military aggression against the sovereign island nation.
In addition to noting that the 2024 presidential elections will create a "distracted America," Minihan added in his memo that "Xi secured his third term [as CCP general secretary] and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan's presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason."
"Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025," Minihan continued.
Minihan's memo made its way across the internet over the weekend and on Sunday, McCaul, who is the head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Fox News that he believes Minihan's prediction is accurate although he followed his agreement up with "I hope he's wrong."
McCaul glumly added, "I think he's right though, unfortunately."
McCaul stated that the current administration is "projecting weakness," which can give the CCP the avenue it needs to take military action. He also noted that the CCP could influence Taiwan's upcoming presidential elections in early 2024 as a means by which to take over the island nation.
"But if they don't win in that one they are going to look at a military invasion, in my judgment," McCaul added. "We have to be prepared for this," he warned.
Meanwhile, Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) disagreed with both McCaul and Minihan about the likelihood of the U.S. entering a war with China in 2 years, stating, "I want to be completely clear. It's not only not inevitable, it's highly unlikely." Smith did add, however, that "anything is possible" and that "generals should be cautious."
Also voicing disagreement with McCaul and Minihan, retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis, who is also the former Supreme Allied Commander for NATO, posted on Twitter, "The job of the military is always to be ready to fight, but in my view, odds of a war with China are decreasing not increasing at the moment. The reason? President Xi is watching the Russian debacle in Ukraine and will likely be more cautious as a result."
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