• Who Will Be Europe's 'Trump Whisperer?'

    November 7, 2024
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    ROME -- The European right got another big boost by Donald Trump’s return to the White House, though it will take a while to figure out how the impacts of Trump’s dramatic victory will play out.

    Even before the U.S. vote, right-wing parties in Europe were on the rise, with more influence than at any time in decades. In more than half of the 27 European Union member states, government coalitions either include right-wing parties or those parties have enough representation in parliament to shape major legislation. That is after the parties over-performed in this summer's vote for European Parliament.

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    Now, analysts say, their influence will be strengthened thanks to a U.S. president who -- at least at first glance -- shares many of the same priorities.

    “The issue with talking about the ‘European right’ is that there are many types of right-wing parties in Europe,” Antonio Villafranca, vice-president of research with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), a Milan-based think tank, told CDM. “Most have looked favorably on the idea of Trump’s reelection, but there is hardly a unified stance for these parties.”

    Leaders ranging from long-time Trump ally Viktor Orban of Hungary to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni offered their congratulations to Trump even before most American media formally called the race in his favor.

    But Orban (pro-Russian and a vocal European Union skeptic) and Meloni (a strong supporter of Ukraine and a crusader against mass migration to Europe) are hardly aligned with each other. And neither of them has too much in common with nationalists represented by French opposition leader Marine Le PenBrexit architect Nigel Farage in the U.K., the populists in the Alternative for Germany party or the traditional European fiscal conservatives.

    “We’ll likely see parties and policies from the right become more mainstream in Europe,” Gregori Alegi, a political scientist and historian with Rome’s LUISS University, said in an interview. “I think we will find Europe’s priorities broadly moving to the right, but it will take time to understand how that will manifest itself.”

    One almost sure change involves the war between Russia and Ukraine, where Trump’s victory could mean the end to U.S. support for the Ukrainian cause. Even if there is continued support from Europe -- not a given in the context of the recent comments from Hungary’s Orban -- that would dramatically weaken Kiev and could force hobbled Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky into peace talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

    It could also have an impact on Europe’s defense policy. Ahead of Tuesday’s election, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk argued that Europe needed to step up its internal defense efforts in order to be more autonomous from the U.S. That’s something Trump called for since his first term in the White House, calling for European allies in NATO to spend more on defense or risk being abandoned if they are attacked.

    But that creates difficulties for Ukraine -- which has survived nearly three years of warfare against the larger and wealthier Russia only due to constant infusions of economic and military aid from the west. The situation also creates problems for several of the America’s biggest allies in Europe.

    That list includes Italy, where the head of government, Meloni, who is reportedly looking to cast herself as Europe’s “Trump whisperer” -- the European leader with Trump’s ear. But Italy, the European Union’s third largest economy, is spending just 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense this year, with declines forecast for 2025 and 2026. That is well below the 2-percent target NATO and Trump have called for, which could force Meloni to choose between her strong support for Ukraine’s Zelensky, her efforts to get Europe’s largest government debt under control, and a seat at the table in Washington.

    Author

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    Eric J. Lyman

    Eric J. Lyman is a U.S-born freelance writer who has lived outside the country for more than 30 years, most recently in Italy. His work has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Fortune Magazine, and the Washington Times.
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