Continuing uncertainty over the trade deal being negotiated with China by the Trump administration is most likely responsible for a miss on the ADP Private Payroll numbers this morning for the month of March. ADP Employment Change came in at 129,000 jobs added vs 170,000 consensus estimate. The month of February was revised slightly higher by 14,000.
The #NeverTrump media is gloating this morning over the development as a sign the economy will be heading into recession just in time for the 2020 presidential election. Nothing could be further from the truth.
What is indeed happening is that corporations, many dependent on the Chinese supply change, are simply keeping their powder dry waiting on the outcome of the negotiations when it comes to making additional hires. Once the deal goes through, Katy bar the door — jobs will be plentiful and the American standard of living will rise further and faster. This is what the Democrats are scared of so the corrupt media continues to do their bidding
A recession is only possible if the trade negotiations fail and tariffs go much higher; however, this will only apply addition pressure to China which they cannot withstand, only delaying an eventual deal. Yes, there would be short term pain at that point for the economy but the long-term outlook will be the same — an American century once again.