The consumer is currently driving the U.S. economy, while the trade war with China and impeachment inject uncertainty into business investment decisions. This situation will likely improve in 2020 as President Trump’s re-election is most likely assured due to the Left’s impeachment dream having taken a beating in the recent show trial and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s refusal to send impeachment articles to the Senate.
The ‘phase one’ also looks to be finalized soon.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Nov) printed this morning at 1.5% vs 1.3% consensus estimate.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Nov) printed at 0.1% meeting estimates.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec) printed at 99.3 vs 99.2 consensus estimate.
Personal Income (MoM) (Nov) printed at 0.5% vs 0.3% consensus estimate.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Nov) printed at 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate.
Personal Spending (Nov) met estimates at 0.4%.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Nov) met estimates at 1.6%.
In short, the consumer is spending while business hold back. CD Media Business does not expect that to remain static as we see business spending accelerating in 2020.