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Markets

Stimmy Check Economy Red Hot…(Hint – It Won’t Last)

Eventually You Run Out Of Other People’s Money

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Economic data reported this morning was off the charts above expectations. In short, the economy is on fire.

However, don’t be fooled. We think this is simply the result of trillions of OBiden dollars being poured into the American economic system. It will not last.

Several observations of this morning’s numbers. 1. Stimmy check euphoria for retail spending is transient. 2. Jobless claim beat most likely due to ‘Covid’ delays in data reporting. 3. Industrial production missed.

And don’t forget – inflation is coming.

———————-

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) printed at 26.3 vs 19.5 consensus estimate.

Retails Sales ex-Autos (MoM) (Mar) printed at 8.4% vs 5% estimate.

Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 2) printed at 3.731M vs 3.7M estimate.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr) printed at 50.2 vs 42 estimate.

Retail Sales Control Group (Mar) printed at 6.9% vs 6.5% estimate.

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 9) printed at 576k vs 700k estimate.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) printed at 9.8% vs 5.9% estimate.

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Apr 9) printed at 683k.

Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) printed at 1.4% vs 2.8% estimate.

Capacity Utilization (Mar) printed at 74.4% vs 75.7% estimate.

Business Inventories (Feb) printed at the estimate of 0.5%.

NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr) printed at the estimate of 83.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Apr 9) printed at 61B vs 67B estimate.

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