Fed Minutes more hawkish than expected on rate-hikes and QT:
Ian Lyngen at BMO had a great take after the minutes:
“If the Fed is going to bring rates swiftly to (and through) neutral, we’re apprehensive that this cycle’s terminal will persist for a truly extended period before the realities of the recovery will require lower policy rates; fine tuning or otherwise.”
In other words - if The Fed follows through on this, recession will swiftly follow (along with market chaos), which will likely force The Fed to fold long before achieving its goal (and escalating its anxieties over losing the public's confidence).
The only question is how negative rates will be in 2024/25...
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