As a former bond trader, I can tell you -- interest rates matter. They matter a lot - they are going to go higher.
The benchmark US 10 year Bond just hit 4%. The historical average is around. 5%. We're not even back to the average.
As rates rise further, more debt, more bankruptcies will occur on the consumer and corporate side.
It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
The Fed can't kick the can forever. It's time we felt pain, real economic pain.
Only then can we recover.
Manufacturing shrunk again. Prices rose again for producers. It's called stagflation.
New orders did rise but most likely due to supply chain issues.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Feb) printed at 47.3 vs 47.8 estimated.
Construction Spending (MoM)(Jan) printed at -0.1% vs 0.2%.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index(Feb) printed at 49.1 vs 51.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index(Feb) printed at 47 vs 43.7.
ISM Manufacturing PMI(Feb) printed at 47.8 vs 48.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid(Feb) printed at 51.3 vs 45.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change(Feb 24) printed at 1.165M vs 0.457M.
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