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Gold and silver both rallied this week after the first two weeks of November drop and gold has recouped 67% of the drop and silver has recouped 30% of the drop. Combined with the gold/silver ratio that has been moving higher this week and is now above 86, silver may have more room to the upside. Gold has great upside momentum.
Economic reports this week included housing starts and building permits for October which both were below estimates buoying the metals. On Thursday, the Philadelphia FED manufacturing survey came in weaker than expected. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell again in October and these last six months have seen a larger decline in the LEI than in the previous six months. Ah ha! Could be why the FED has begun to lower their benchmark interest rate.
Now, on to the Rob Arnott article. I have met Rob and find him to be a market expert.
Legendary Investor Rob Arnott Says Stock Market 'Looks And Feels Like The Year 2000' As Wall Street Rallies After Trump's Win: '...Likely To See A Bear Market'
Rob Arnott started Research Affiliates, a quantitative investment firm in 2002 and they manage over $36 billion.
In his comments on the stock market which came in a recent interview with Business Insider he states:
The current stock market environment is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble peak according to Rob Arnott, the founder and chairman of Research Affiliates. Arnott predicts a significant pullback in the near future.
Arnott, who is known for his early predictions of bull market tops, sees parallels between the current market and the dot-com bubble peak. He does not anticipate an immediate significant pullback but foresees a substantial decline in the near future.
Arnott’s observations come as the S&P 500, a large-cap index dominated by mega-cap growth firms, surged 5% within a week following Donald Trump’s election, closing above 6,000 for the first time. This rapid increase is the latest development in a 66% rally that has lasted over two years.
“This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me,” Arnott told the publication.
“Are we likely to see a bear market in the next two years for large-cap growth? Yeah.”
Until next time…
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