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The CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll for Fall 2021 was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,000 registered voters in Georgia via online survey panel from September 18 to September 22, 2021. The sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. Results were weighted to represent statewide voter demographics to include age, gender, race and region. Party identification or affiliation—separate from the more static party registration—is impacted by weighting aforementioned variables, but results are NOT weighted for party identification. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 38% Republican, 34% Democratic, and 28% Independent/Other.
Republicans Lead Democrats on Generic Ballot In Georgia
Republicans lead Democrats statewide on the Generic Ballot in Georgia ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, voters in the Peach State would back the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate by roughly 5 points, 43.7% to 38.7%.
Unaffiliated voters backed Republicans by about 3 points, 30.3% to 26.7%, though more than 1 in 3 (34.1%) remain undecided. Nine-percent (8.9%) chose someone else. Third Party voters are leaning toward Republicans by 5 points, 17.5% to 12.8%, with more than half (56.2%) undecided. Fourteen-percent (13.5%) say they would vote for someone else. Combined, Democrats trail Republicans among non-two-party voters by 4 points, 28.0% to 24.3%.
“As we saw in the election for U.S. Senate in Georgia, voters are leaning toward the Republican candidate outside the survey sampling error,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But there are key differences in the voting coalitions that result in Republican candidates for the U.S. House running slightly behind their presumptive nominee, Herschel Walker.”
“There are also more undecided voters for the lower chamber than the upper chamber.”
More than 6 in 10 white voters (62.3%) chose the Republican candidate, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.3%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.
By area, the Democratic candidate leads only among Urban voters, 58.3% to 25.4%, with 13.6% undecided. Republicans dominate among rural voters by more than 40 points, 61.3% to 19.9%. In the suburbs, Republicans hold a slight 2-point lead.
By region, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House lead only in Atlanta Metro, 54.3% to 30.7%. Republicans lead in the North (48.5% to 31.7%), Central Georgia (51.9% to 26.9%), and the Coast / South (45.5% to 35.1%). The Atlanta Suburbs are just outside of the sampling error with Republicans leading by over 3 points, 44.2% to 40.8%.
Important to note, the survey was conducted before the crisis of the debt ceiling and the failure of the Democratic majority to force the Biden Administration’s infrastructure bill into law. As previously reported, the CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll found President Joe Biden’s approval rating deeply underwater in Georgia. Only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.
“There is a well-established, strong relationship between presidential approval rating and party performance in midterm elections,” Mr. Baris added. “History, Democrats were already facing headlines in the U.S. House and the plummeting approval rating for the president is not helping.”
“Mr. Biden’s job performance has become a significant drag on Democratic candidates in Georgia, particularly with truly persuadable voters.”
Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.
Forensic Audit for the 2020 Election
Voters in Georgia overwhelmingly support calls for a full forensic audit of the statewide vote in the 2020 presidential election, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. From requiring photo identification to bans on drop boxes and ballot harvesting, to greater oversight and constraints on late-arriving ballots, voters in the Peach State back favor election integrity over convenance.
“As we found in January, there is broad consensus for much more strict election reforms and proposals than we saw put on the books in Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Further, roughly 6 in 10 voters support calls from some Republicans to review the integrity of the vote last year.”
Herschel Walker Leads Raphael Warnock for U.S. Senate in Georgia
Herschel Walker leads incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate in Georgia, according to a new CD Media Georgia Record Big Data Poll. The former football star and Republican frontrunner leads the junior senator outside the survey’s sampling error by 5 points, 45.6% to 40.9%.
Unaffiliated voters backed Walker over Warnock by about 2 points, 37.6% to 36.0%, with roughly 1 in 4 (26.5%) undecided. Third Party voters backed Warnock 30.8% to 21.6%, with nearly half (47.6%) undecided.
“A more fired-up Republican base has already coalesced behind Herschel Walker and the crossover vote favors him, as well,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “But the size and scope of Walker’s advantage over Raphael Warnock is blinding when drilling down on area and region.”
“The man is dominating among all the key regional demographics.”
Nearly two-thirds of white voters (65.0%) chose Walker, as did slightly more than 1 in 10 black voters (10.1%). White voters represent slightly more than 6 in 10 voters in the Georgia electorate, while non-white voters combined typically represent just under 4 in 10.
Warnock leads among urban voters 56.2% to 29.2%, while Walker dominates among rural voters 62.6% to 22.3%. The two candidates are statistically tied in the suburbs at 44%.
By region, the Democrat leads only in Atlanta Metro, 58.2% to 29.4%. The Republican leads in the North (53.3% to 29.4%), Central Georgia (51.4% to 33.8%), and the Coast / South (48.5% to 35.4%). The Atlanta Suburbs are statistically tied with Walker leading by just over 1 point, 46.0% to 44.5%.
“Both Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate in Georgia lost on January 5 because they failed to generate enough turnout among the base in Central and South / Coastal Georgia regions,” Mr. Baris added. “Democrats didn’t win those races. Republicans lost them by not defending the former president.”
“Herschel Walker is not suffering from the same disadvantages.”
Mr. Walker was endorsed for the Republican nomination by former President Donald J. Trump, and will appear with him at the Georgia National Fairgrounds in Perry for the “Save America Rally” this Saturday.
Gubernatorial Vote Preference: Republican Primary
“President Donald J. Trump is the kingmaker in Georgia. However, if he chooses to sit out the gubernatorial primary, then Governor Kemp will have the edge,” Mr. Baris added. “If he does not, then whomever he endorses will benefit greatly and likely win the nomination.”
U.S. Senate Vote Preference: Republican Primary
“Hershel Walker is doing what he has always done best in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia,” Mr. Baris said. “He is running way ahead of the competition, holding large and commanding leads among all partisan affiliations who indicate they will vote in the GOP primary next year, in every region throughout the state and among every demographic.”
“The Republican nomination looks to be his for the taking.”
Governor Brian Kemp’s Approval Rating
Governor Brian Kemp currently enjoys positive ratings among all registered voters in Georgia, with just under half (49.7%) approving of his job performance and just over 4 in 10 (41.6%) disapproving. However, the pollster who conducted the survey says the results raised some questions about his re-election prospects.
“Governor Kemp is above water in Georgia, but beneath the surface he has some issues,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “More than 1 in 4 Republican voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as governor and independents are nearly tied.”
“He’s far more vulnerable in a general election than it appears at a glance,” Mr. Baris noted. “His overall approval rating is being propped up by a third of Democratic voters who are more likely than not to vote for their own candidate once one has been nominated.”
President Joe Biden’s Approval Rating
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is badly underwater in the Peace State, according to a new CD Media/ Georgia Record/Big Data Poll. In this tumultuous time of his presidency, only 41% of voters in Georgia approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, while a solid majority (55%) disapprove.
“As we’ve seen nationally and in other battleground states, voters have quickly soured on President Joe Biden in Georgia,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “Statewide, he has taken a significant hit as roughly 14% of voters who backed his candidacy in November now disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while less than 6% who voted for former President Donald J. Trump approve.”
Only 33% of independents statewide approve of the president’s performance, including only 10% who strongly approve, while 58% disapprove. That includes 39% who strongly disapprove.
“Nearly twice as many voters strongly disapprove (43%) of his job performance juxtaposed to those who strongly approve (22%).”
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