The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leading the crowded field for the nomination, though his chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen within the sampling error. “Governor Kemp started the month ranging from the mid to high 50s and has now fallen just above 50%,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “While the path is certainly easier for the incumbent, he is currently below 50% in votes already cast and still needs to get out a core group of affluent suburban supporters who say they’ll vote early but have not yet voted.”
Of those who already voted, the governor remains just below the threshold at 48.1%, also within the sampling error. Early voting has shattered records in Georgia this year and 56.5% who plan to vote early but have not yet voted would back the incumbent, down from slightly over 60% earlier this month.
“That would explain why former Vice President Mike Pence and others are attempting to rally support for him,” Baris added. “He does not have the race locked up and it could be headed in the wrong direction.”
“If he doesn’t outperform among early voters from now until Election Day, he will fall below 50%.”
Meanwhile, voters say they will participate in the Republican primary (56.4%) in greater numbers than the Democratic primary (43.6%) this year, a margin that appears to be very close to current statewide statistics. Importantly, 57.5% of independent and third party voters will vote in the GOP primary, while 42.5% will vote in the Democratic primary.
While non-party affiliated voter participation is a good sign for the GOP in the fall, it’s a net negative for Brian Kemp. Only 43.9% of these voters are supporting him in the gubernatorial primary contest.
Looking ahead to the general election, both of the top two Republican candidates are leading Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris is skeptical about Kemp’s support among Democrats.
“Roughly a third of Democrats routinely approve of the job Kemp is doing as governor and about 8% say they would vote for him over Abrams. That compares to 5% of Democratic support for Perdue. In the end, partisan voters will return home and both candidates will garner base support and both lead their Democratic opponent among independents.”
The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia interviewed 1,519 likely voters statewide via Peer-to-Peer SMS to an online survey panel from May 8 to May 11, 2022. The survey sampling error is ± 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent national voter file demographics in the state to include gender, age, race and region. The likely voter screen includes vote history and self-reported likelihood to vote. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Full crosstabs.
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