Blake Masters has surged to 30.8% and now leads his closest rival in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona by 11 points, the CD Media Big Data Poll finds. Jim Lamon (19.6%) and Mark Brnovich (18.2%) are locked in a tight race for second place, with 24.2% still undecided.
Michael McGuire and Justin Olson round out fourth and fifth with 4.8% and 2.1%, respectively.
"Blake Masters has risen steadily over the last few days and has now broken double-digits," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. "His coalition is more diverse and more motivated to vote than any other in this race."
"Without a doubt, the Trump-endorsed ticket is in the lead."
The Grand Canyon State has become the latest battleground for control over the Republican Party. Former President Donald J. Trump has endorsed Blake Masters for U.S. Senate and Kari Lake. The Republican Establishment represented by former Vice President Mike Pence and Governor Doug Ducey are either directly or indirectly supporting their opponents.
As CD Media previously reported, Lake leads Karrin Taylor Robson, 43.1% to 28.8%, with 18% undecided. In both cases, enthusiasm and likelihood to vote favor the America First ticket. Masters leads among those who are “extremely” enthusiastic by 14 points, 34.8.0% to 21.4% for Lamon. Of those who are “very” enthusiastic, Masters leads 29.8% to 20.8% for Brnovich.
Among voters who are “certain to vote or have already voted”, Masters leads 32.1% to 20.6% for Lamon and 17.5% for Brnovich.
In Maricopa, which accounts for roughly 6 in 10 votes statewide, Masters leads 30.2% to 19.4% over Lamon. Brnovich takes 18.2% of the vote in the state's largest county. In Pima, Masters holds a slight edge over Lamon 23.7% to 21.1%, with Brnovich close behind at 20.7%. The remaining counties are also supporting Masters over Lamon and Brnovich by a combined 35.7% to 19.5% and 16.5%.
Primary participation and political leanings reveal Republicans will have a turnout advantage on August 2, as well as in November. When asked, 56.1% of likely primary voters report they will vote in the Republican primary, while 43.9% will vote in the Democratic primary.
Only 1.9% of Republicans claim they will vote in the Democratic primary, while 3.7% of Democrats report they will cross the aisle. Independent and third-party voters are overwhelmingly participating in the Republican contests, 61.6% to 38.4%.
The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Primary and Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,172 likely primary voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.9% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. The sampling error for Republican primary voters (N=644) is ± 3.9% at a 95% confidence interval, and the sampling error for Democratic primary voters (N=504) is ± 4.4% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on Google Sheets.
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