The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Donald Trump leads Joe Biden 46.6% to 40.0% in Pennsylvania, one of the most crucial battleground states. The 45th President became the first Republican to carry the Keystone State since 1988 when he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, but lost it to the 46th President by less than 1.2% in 2020.
“Ahead of both 2016 and 2020, every poll we conducted in the state pointed to a very close race,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, stated. “Now, it’s not at all that close. Even after being raided by the FBI, the former president appears poised to win it rather easily.”
Men back Trump 59.0% to 27.4%, a far wider margin than the 55% to 44% he carried them in 2020 statewide. Meanwhile, women back Biden by a narrower 52.0% to 34.9% margin. Women backed Biden in the last presidential election across the state by the same margin men backed Trump, according to Exit Polls.
Only 20.8% strongly approve of the job Biden is doing as President in Pennsylvania, while 50.8% strongly disapprove and another 3.8% somewhat disapprove. Overall, he’s underwater 43.3% to 54.5%. Only a combined 28.6% of independents and third party voters approve.
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Working class voters without a college degree back the former president overwhelmingly, 58.2% to 30.3%, as do voters with some college or 2-year degree, 52.0% to 31.5%. College graduates with a 4-year degree back Biden 48.0% to 38.5%, while voters with advanced degrees also back the current president, 65.1% to 24.4%.
By region, Biden’s highest level of support comes from Philadelphia, where he leads 51.7% to 22.9%, while Trump’s highest level of support comes from Central “T” voters, 66.3% to 26.9%. Notably, Trump leads Biden in the Northeast, 49.5% to 34.6%, where Scranton or “Bidentown” is located.
The former president also leads among white voters 51.9% to 37.3% and Biden holds a rather weak lead among black voters, 56.5% to 22.3%.
“There’s no sugarcoating this result for Joe Biden,” Director Baris added. “It’s a very significant lead in a state that—in our experience—has typically polled within the sampling error for the last six years.”
Trump heads to Wilkes-Barre on Saturday to rally for Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano and U.S. Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz.
The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Pennsylvania Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 927 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from August 30 to September 1, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.2% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.
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