The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by in a hypothetical rematch in Wisconsin, 43.5% to 41.4%. A significant percentage would choose someone else at 12.9%, though that's expected this far off from an election, and 2.1% are undecided.
“The Badger State was the first of the Blue Wall to fall in 2016 to the former president and the closest of the three Rust Belt states lost to Biden in 2020,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, stated. “Though both candidates are below 50%, this rounded 3-point margin for Trump in Wisconsin is the largest ever found statewide in the history of Big Data Poll.”
Men prefer Trump 47.0% to 38.2% and women prefer Biden by a more narrow margin, 44.8% to 39.9%. This November, men (92.3%) are also more “certain to vote” than women (86.1%), setting the stage for a more male-heavy electorate. That has largely been the case in Wisconsin since 2018, when men outvoted women and were 51% of the electorate. In 2020, the electorate was even at 50% male, 50% female.
By education, voters with a high school degree or less back Trump 48.1% to 36.7%, though he performs strongest among voters with some college or an Associate degree, 52.2% to 33.3%. Voters with a 4-year degree back Biden, 46.7% to 37.3%. Voters who hold advanced or postgraduate degrees heavily favor Biden, 57.4% to 28.2%.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Wisconsin. While 44.6% approve of the job he’s doing as president, to include 23.4% who strongly approve, 54.5% disapprove and that includes 47.9% who strongly disapprove.
“That -24.5% intensity index with only 0.9% remaining undecided strongly suggests Biden will be an anchor weighing down Democratic candidates in November,” Baris noted. “This should come as no surprise to anyone.”
Republicans lead Democrats by roughly 5 points on the Generic Ballot in Wisconsin, 47.3% to 42.0%. While support for Democratic candidates will assuredly rise as more undecided voters in Milwaukee County return to partisan voting, it is unlikely that support will eclipse or even match support for Republican candidates statewide.
The CD Media Big Data Poll also finds Democratic incumbent Governor Tony Evers locked in a dead heat with Trump-endorsed Republican Tim Michels in the hotly contested gubernatorial election. Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson leads Democrat Mandela Barnes by just over 3 points in the race for U.S. Senate, 49.2% to 46.0%.
The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Wisconsin Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 852 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from September 17 to September 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.
Subscribe to our evening newsletter to stay informed during these challenging times!!