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    CDM's Election Watch 2024 -

    December 14, 2023
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    Trump Leads In Seven Swing States With Focus On Margin of Victory

    Image by Gage Skidmore

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    In a week of congressional and legal drama for President Joe Biden with his House impeachment inquiry formally opened, and former President Donald Trump’s legal cases moving forward, a new poll has Trump leading in seven swing states just a month before Americans cast their first 2024 primary and caucus votes.

    Biden is trailing Trump  by an average of 5.28 % in the seven swing states surveyed — North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

    The poll, published on Thursday from Morning Consult and Bloomberg News, found Trump holding his strongest lead over Biden in North Carolina by 11 points, followed by Georgia with a lead of 7 points.

    Trump is leading in Wisconsin by 6 points and Nevada by 5 points. His smallest leads are in Michigan and Arizona, leading by 4 and 3 points, respectively. Pennsylvania trails with 1%.

    The results are based upon a  hypothetical ballot which includes national party front-runners Biden and Trump, as well as third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein. The survey also included an option to choose an unlisted candidate or answer “don’t know/no opinion,” or choose to forgo voting altogether.

    No Labels is working to get their name on the ballot in all 50 states although the organization is not expected to  officially name their candidates until spring 2024, if they do at all. 

    Kennedy had support from roughly 1 in 10 voters across the swing states, while 1 percent to 2 percent of voters in each state supported West, 1 percent to 3 percent supported Jill Stein and 1 percent to 3 percent supported a candidate not on the ballot. 

    When the third-party candidates were removed from the hypothetical ballot, Trump still leads Biden in all seven states. In that situation, pollsters found that the survey results for Georgia comes within a margin of error of 6 percentage points.

    The pollsters also analyzed the survey by issues. Economy and health care are at the top of the issues on voters' minds. That makes sense. Grocery and gas prices continue to skyrocket and the hesitancy for vaccination shots has only increased over time.

    Trump secured more support on the economy while Biden’s slight lead appeared on health care in five of the swing states — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump still leads on health care in Georgia and North Carolina.

    The Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll was conducted among swing-state voters from Nov. 27 to Dec. 6 and has an overall margin of error of 3 percentage points.

    It obviously does not include any impact emanating from the House vote on Biden’s impeachment inquiry, which passed on Wednesday, nor Hunter Biden’s deviant refusal to sit for a House deposition into his business dealings and any nexus with his father, then Vice-President Joe Biden, behind closed doors on Wednesday. 

    The same day of the impeachment vote, former President Trump told his supporters at an Iowa event to not take anything for granted and urged them to “go out and vote” despite his leads in current polls.

    “I have to say this, we are leading by a lot, but you have to go out and vote,” Trump said at the event in Coralville, Iowa.

    The former president noted the importance of the margin of victory. 

    “It’s just very important, even for foreign countries watching, but it’s very important. That margin of victory is so, so powerful,” said Trump.

    NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom recently conducted a poll of Iowa Republicans likely to attend the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, where the first votes will be happen. The pollsters found that 51 % listed Trump as their first choice, followed by DeSantis at 19 percent and Haley at 16 percent.

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    Christine Dolan

    Christine Dolan is a seasoned Investigative Journalist, television producer, author, and photographer. She is Co-Founder of American Conversations whose format focuses on in-depth analysis of critical issues about “the story behind the headlines.”
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