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CDM BIG DATA POLL - PA Senate Race Tightening Quickly
The CDM BIG DATA POLL finds Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris narrowly in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, with three weeks until Election Day. The former president edges out the vice president in each of the ballot scenarios tested.
In the head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris among registered voters 47.3% to 45.0%, with 7.6% remaining undecided. But that lead grows to 49.6% to 46.5% among likely voters, with just 3.9% undecided. With leaners, the margin among likely voters continues to grow to 51.8% to 48.2%
Including third parties, Trump leads Harris among registered voters 47.5% to 46.4% with 2.3% choosing third party and 3.8% undecided. When undecided voters are asked to decide, the margin tightens to a statistical tie at 48.1% for Trump to 47.4% for Harris, with 4.5% choosing a third party.
But the former president again performs better among likely voters, leading 49.0% to 47.5% with only 1.4% choosing a third party and 2.1% remaining undecided. When undecideds were again asked to lean, Trump led 49.5% to 48.3%.
“Former President Donald Trump is notably running much stronger in urban areas in 2024 juxtaposed to both 2016 and 2020,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said. “That coupled with Vice President Kamala Harris unable to match President Joe Biden’s margin in Northeastern Pennsylvania, is making it very difficult for her to close the gap.”
In Alleghany County, for instance, Trump touches the low 40s (42%) when undecideds are asked to lean, while Harris is garnering a level of support that resembles Hillary Clinton in 2016. The Northeastern region of the state was critical to Biden’s statewide victory in 2020, but Harris now trails by 8 to 11 points depending on the ballot scenario.
President Joe Biden is badly underwater in the Keystone State. Only 39.6% of registered voters approve of the job he’s doing, including only 19.1% who strongly approve. Meanwhile, 57.9% disapprove to include 45.9% who strongly disapprove, giving him an intensity score of -26.8. His job approval is only marginally better among likely voters.
The CDM BIG DATA POLL sponsored by CDM was conducted by BIG DATA POLL and interviewed 1,024 registered voters and 942 likely voters statewide in Pennsylvania from October 10 to October 14, 2024. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is ±2.9% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
The Keystone Battleground notably adds two additional regions not explicitly defined in traditional exit polls for Pennsylvania, and they are weighted accordingly: Dutch and Allegheny. This is done to ensure a more accurate representation in rural and suburban areas due to higher participation rates in higher population centers and metro areas. It’s important to note that part of the Dutch Region includes what is traditionally referred to as the Philadelphia Suburbs.
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