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October 6, Arizona

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CDMedia Big Data Poll: Finchem Leads Fontes for Arizona Secretary of State

Remaining Undecideds for Arizona Secretary of State Look Ripe for Republicans

The CDMedia Big Data Poll finds Republican Mark Finchem leading Democrat Adrian Fontes for Arizona Secretary of State, 45.0% to 42.5%, with 12.5% undecided.

By region, Finchem hold a slight 46.2% to 43.9% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That’s well within the sampling error of the survey and it’s important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Fontes leads in Pima County 53.3% to 35.2% and Finchem leads in the rest of the state, 48.4% to 31.8%.

Refresh shortly for more on the CDMedia Big Data Poll for Arizona Secretary of State.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.


CDMedia Big Data Poll: Mark Kelly, Blake Masters Neck-and-Neck For Arizona Senate

Despite Kelly’s Massive Money Advantage, Voters in Arizona Are Evenly Split

Arizona Midterms 2022: U.S. Senate

The CDMedia Big Data Poll finds Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters statistically tied for U.S. Senate in Arizona. In July, Kelly held a slight early lead over Masters in the CDMedia Big Data Poll, 43.7% to 40.6%, with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.

Now, with four weeks to go before Election Day, Kelly and Masters are separated by just 0.6%, or 45.8% to 45.2%, respectively. The incumbent has risen 2.1% since the last survey, while the vastly outspent challenger has gained 4.6%. Libertarian Marc Victor earns 1.8% and 7.2% remain undecided.

“The movement has come almost exclusively from those who disapprove of the job the president is doing and among those who previously indicated they would vote for someone else,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “The challenger gained the lion’s share of those voters and the race now really is a coin toss.”

Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Masters leads Kelly among extremely enthusiastic voters, 51.6% to 45.6%, up from the 46.9% to 40.0% advantage Masters held in July.

Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4%. That certainty to vote compares to just 65.0% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, and 36.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic. Of those most likely to vote, Masters leads Kelly 47.6% to 46.5%. In July, the two candidates were tied at 43.3% among those certain to vote.

Kelly leads 42.8% to 24.1% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).

By region, Masters hold a slight 46.9% to 45.7% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That’s well within the sampling error of the survey and it’s important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Kelly leads in Pima County 58.1% to 33.2% and Masters leads in the rest of the state, 48.7% to 38.0%.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.


CDMedia Big Data Poll: Kari Lake Leads Katie Hobbs For Arizona Governor

Lake Widens Lead Over Hobbs for Arizona Governor Since July

The CDMedia Big Data Poll finds Republican Kari Lake leading Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the race for governor of Arizona. Lake, a 22-year veteran anchor for Fox 10 Phoenix (KSAZ-TV), held a slight 1-point lead over Hobbs in the CDMedia Big Data Poll in July. 43.7% to 40.6%, with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.

Now, with four weeks to go before Election Day, Lake leads Hobbs in the Grand Canyon State by 3.7%, or 48.5% to 44.8%, respectively. The Republican has risen 9.1% since the last survey, while the Democrat has gained 6.7%. Less than 1% (0.6%) intends to cast a write-in vote and 6.2% remain undecided.

“There has been significant movement in the Arizona governor’s race since the last survey we conducted in the state,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, noted. “Republicans have come home after a tough fought primary and the voters who represent the nearly 50% decline in undecideds broke hard and fast for Lake.”

Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Lake leads Hobbs among extremely enthusiastic voters, 53.9% to 43.7%, up from the 45.4% to 37.8% advantage Lake held in July.

Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4%. That certainty to vote compares to just 65.0% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, and 36.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic. Of those certain to vote, Lake leads Hobbs 50.5% to 44.9%, up from the 41.7% to 38.4% lead Lake held in July among those certain to vote.

Hobbs leads 41.7% to 31.7% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).

By region, Lake hold a 50.3% to 44.8% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That’s just outside the sampling error of the survey and it’s important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Hobbs leads in Pima County 55.3% to 36.6% and Lake leads in the rest of the state, 51.4% to 38.0%.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.

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