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China Has Already Lost the Trade War

China has already lost the trade war
First Lady Melania Trump and Mrs. Peng Liyuan, wife of Chinese President Xi Jinping, enjoy refreshments on the patio at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, Friday, April 7, 2017

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are caught in a growing dispute over trade and, more broadly, the significant differences between their two very different political economies. Tough as it is to predict the future, there are some signs as to who will be the winners and losers.

Trump calls the dispute “a little squabble,” and in economic terms the threat of conflict with China does seem minimal. The retaliatory tariffs China unveiled last week, for example, won’t significantly slow the American economy, cutting economic growth by about a tenth of a percentage point next year if the spat isn’t ended, according to Oxford Economics and Moody’s Analytics…

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1 comment

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Phoebe May 22, 2019 at 5:49 pm

To attempt to even put a number on the impact of the trade war is simply hubris. Capex will be frozen, confidence dented and supply chains unchained as we await further information.
The list of companies moving on, and then off (for 30 days Huawei…?) of the blacklist has been changing daily.

We are left to do scenario analysis… a feeble attempt to model a bear / neutral / bull case for markets. Xi and Trump maybe meet at the G20, that’s the end of Q2. Corporations will guide for H2 at the end of Q2. Meanwhile capex, already in the process of turtling at the end of Q1, will roll over further. What follows: layoffs.

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