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President Joe Biden's approval rating in Arizona is only 36.2% and disapproval has skyrocketed to 62.0%, the CD Media Big Data Poll finds. This dissatisfaction with the president statewide extends to his party and is weighting down statewide candidates ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
"The first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996 is now underwater with every single racial demographic except one," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. "Mr. Biden is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and it will impact Democratic candidates on the ballot this November."
Worth noting, neither of the two most recent Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state did so with majorities. Clinton won the state with 46.5% to 44.3% over Bob Dole the year Ross Perot earned 8.0%. Biden's margin was only 0.3% at 49.4%.
Now, roughly half (49.5%) of all likely midterm voters strongly disapprove of the job he's doing as president, while only 13.3% strongly approve, resulting in an intensity index of -36.2. White voters have the strongest disapproval at 54.1%, but strong support for the president is the lowest among Hispanic voters at only 11.2%.
Overall, only 33.3% of White voters approve and they are being dwarfed by the 65.1% who disapprove. In another ominous sign for Democrats, Biden is underwater with the critical Hispanic demographic 58.5% to 39.2%.
"Granted exit polls should always be more of a guidepost than Gospel, but they showed Mr. Biden carrying Hispanics 61% to 37%," Mr. Baris added. "Many Hispanics who disapprove of the president are self-identifying as independents no matter their registration, and they remain undecided in key races simply because they're not paying close attention yet."
"It's not even Labor Day."
The president is enjoying majority support only among Black voters in Arizona, a demographic set to represent single digits in the electorate this November. Still, 68.4% approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president, though that includes only 25.8% who strongly approve. Overall disapproval among the most loyal Democratic voting bloc has shot to 30.5%.
The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,298 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on Google Sheets.
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