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Chicago PMI Misses Big…An Outlier? Or Harbinger Of Coronavirus Slowdown?

Chicago PMI Misses Big...An Outlier? Or Harbinger Of Corona Slowdown?
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Economic indicators are just that…indicators. Today the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January plumeted well below estimates. This is after other regional indexes have shown a recovery from December’s doldrums, where trade, the coronavirus, and impeachment weighed on executive decisions to build inventory.

We suspect this number is an outlier; although, there is no doubt the continued spread of the coronavirus could impact economic numbers going forward, depending on its severity.

Yesterday POTUS said the problem for the U.S. economy was small and Americans had nothing to worry about. We will look for future readings to spot a trend.

Consumer Sentiment showed strong growth.

Other economic data was mixed.

Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Dec) printed at 1.6% vs 1.7% consensus estimate.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate.

Personal Income (MoM) (Dec) printed at 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate.

Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Dec) printed at 0.3% vs 0.1% estimate.

Unemployment Cost Index (Q4) printed at the estimate – 0.7%.

Personal Spending (Dec) printed at the estimate of 0.3%.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index printed at the estimate of 1.6%.

Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 42.9 vs the estimate of 48.8.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan) printed at 99.8 vs 99.1 estimate.

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1 comment

Market Thoughts On A Saturday Morning As Virus Ravages China February 1, 2020 at 5:35 pm

[…] Chicago PMI Misses Big…An Outlier? Or Harbinger Of Coronavirus Slowdown? […]

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