Kelly Holds Slight Lead, But Undecided Voters Strongly Disapprove of Joe Biden
The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Kelly fighting for his political life in the U.S. Senate against Republican frontrunner Blake Masters in Arizona. Kelly holds a slight early lead over Masters 43.7% to 40.6% with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.
Of those who are undecided, 54.1% strongly disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president and only 4.1% strongly approve. Overall, the president is underwater with undecided voters in the senatorial contest by an astonishing 76.5% to 19.1%. According to Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, those voters are highly unlikely to vote for the incumbent Democrat.
“The relationship between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance for their party candidate is well established,” Director Baris stated. “The president is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and that dissatisfaction will weigh down Democratic candidates up and down the ballot this fall.”
As CD Media previously reported, Biden’s approval rating in Arizona is only 36.2% and disapproval has skyrocketed to 62.0%. Roughly half (49.5%) of all likely midterm voters strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while only 13.3% strongly approve, resulting in an intensity index of -36.2. White voters have the strongest disapproval at 54.1%, but strong support for the president is the lowest among Hispanic voters at only 11.2%.
“Historically speaking, the 2022 midterm elections are expected to be difficult for the incumbent party in power nationally,” Director Baris added. “But if we scratch beneath the surface and dig a little deeper into the results, the findings indeed reveal multiple Republican advantages.”
Far fewer Democrats (53.2%) than Republicans (64.5%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, an 11.3% enthusiasm edge for the GOP. Masters leads Kelly among extremely enthusiastic voters, 46.9% to 40.0%.
Nearly all voters (97.4%) who reported being “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November. That certainty to vote compares to just 55.7% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, 39.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic, and 57.9% who are “not at all” enthusiastic.
Of those most likely to vote, the two candidates are tied at 43.3%. Kelly leads 45.5% to 27.2% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).
The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,298 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and methodology on Google Sheets.