Fed Meeting To Begin Tomorrow

Stocks opened up slightly as investors looked to the upcoming two-day Federal Reserve meeting. The meeting will culminate on Wednesday with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.

Investors anticipate a rate cut in July, but the size of the initial cut is up for debate. Additional cuts may come in September and December, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Policy is expected to remain the same. Indicators have recently pointed to slower growth, and a rate cut could fuel economic activity.

Stalled trade talks with China and increasingly stubborn rhetoric from both sides have cast a pall over global growth.

Empire Manufacturing Headline Down

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures overall business conditions in New York state, is the first regional survey to be released in June. The headline was much slower than forecast, printing at -8.6 versus a prior reading of +17.8. This is the lowest Empire reading since 2016.

Weakness was broad-based across categories: new orders fell to -12 from +9.7, the number of employees fell to -3.5 from +4.7, and work hours and inventories were also down.

• Notes From The Ivory Gulag
• U.S. – China Trade War, Part One: China’s Plan for World Domination