The U.S. stock markets keep climbing the wall of worry, or should I say they are straddling the wall at all time highs, teasing us with the thought of moving higher to new records. So what’s going on?
We’ve written here at CD Media frequently about the risk we see in the market and how China cannot make a good trade deal in our opinion. If that is the case, then why is the equity market not selling off, pricing in a failure in the China trade talks as far as closing an agreement with the U.S. is concerned?
There are a few possibilities. First, the market may just be wrong. Investors may just be wishing too hard for a ‘grand bargain’ with Beijing.
Or perhaps we are seeing something more significant. Perhaps we are seeing the start of a new American century, a de-coupling of the United States from China. Perhaps we are seeing evidence of a Trump re-election, and the continuation of massive prosperity, similar to Reagan’s second term.
In any event, we still think there is some pain to go through before we move much higher, even though many technical analysts are calling for just that…a move higher.
The months heading into the end of the year will be critical as we suspect indictments will start coming down from the Trump DOJ against the seditious actions of the Obama administration. Perhaps this is what the market sees, looking past all the noise from the Democrat Deep State operatives.
The PMI came in mixed today.
Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 51.0 vs 50.3 consensus estimate.
Services PMI was weak, at 50.9 actual vs 51.5 consensus.