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Economic Data Coming In Bad As Expected, But Markets Are Looking Forward Already

Economic Data Coming In Bad As Expected, But Markets Are Looking Forward Already
Worker Transporting Packages, Texas & Pacific Railway Company, 1946

If you haven’t noticed, equity markets are moving slowly higher as the ‘sell everything’ mania seems to have passed for the time being. That may change however, as the unemployment crisis that is unfolding from the government-ordered ‘stay at home’ scenario plays out. Markets are forward-looking indicators and have priced in the temporary shut down of the American economy. The strength of financial market recovery depends on the definition of ‘temporary’.

The Federal Reserve is continuing to provide dollar liquidity globally, keeping markets functioning.

Today President Trump also announced a $2 trillion infrastructure package which should make markets happy.

We expect continued volatility and a retest of the March lows eventually.

Consumer Confidence printed at 120 vs the consensus estimate of 110, which was a decline of 12.6.

Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Mar) printed at 47.8 vs and estimate of 40. The rise was due to a rise in prices from a drop in supply due to collapse of global supply chains.

S&P/Case Swiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Jan) printed at 3.1% vs estimate of 3.2%.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Mar) printed yesterday at -70 vs estimate of 6.2, showing massive drop in economic activity.

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