BLS Job Revisions Show Every Job Report In 2021 Was Total Garbage

February 6, 2022

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The BLS made huge revisions in the number of monthly job dating all the way back to 2017.

BLS 2021 job level revisions by month, data From the BLS, chart by Mish

Along with its monthly jobs report the BLS produced annual revisions, emphasis mine.

Effective with data for January 2022, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2021 and earlier months.
The adjustments increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 973,000, the civilian labor force by 1,530,000, employment by 1,471,000, and unemployment by 59,000. The number of persons not in the labor force decreased by 557,000. Although the total unemployment rate was unaffected, the employment-population ratio and labor force participation rate were each increased by 0.3 percentage point. This was mostly due to an increase in the size of the population in age groups that participate in the labor force at high rates (those ages 35 to 64) and a large decrease in the size of the population age 65 and older, which participates at a low rate.
Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments can affect the comparability of household data series over time. Additional information on the population adjustments and their effect on national labor force estimates is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdf.

Job Level Revision Notes

A positive number in the lead chart indicates the BLS underestimated jobs in the given month
A negative number in the lead chart indicates the BLS overestimated jobs in the given month
The BLS underestimated jobs for the first 5 months of 2021 plus December.
The BLS overestimated jobs every month between June and November, 6 consecutive months.
The sum of overestimates totals 2,507,000
The sum of underestimates total 1,890,000
The final revision in December was up by 211,000

Every Job Report in 2021 Was Total Garbage

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