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The FOMC dropped its dot-plot and it was unequivocally more hawkish than the Dec dots with 2024 flat at 3 cuts (though more voters moved towards only 50bps), but 2025 and beyond saw rate-cuts erased from the projections...
Powell reiterated his long-held view that the dot-plot does not amount to a "plan".
Powell calls the longer run interest rate change "pretty modest".
“I don’t think we know that,” Powell says about whether this will be a lasting trend.
However, Powell did admit rates are unlikely to be going ZIRP anytime soon:
“I don’t see rates going back down to that level but I think there’s tremendous uncertainty on that.”
If the Fed eases too much or too soon, he says, we could see inflation come back...
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