Trump Winning the Battle for Control Over the Republican Party in Arizona

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The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Kari Lake leading by a double-digit margin over Karrin Taylor Robson, 43.1% to 28.8%, with 18% undecided. Matt Salmon, who dropped out and endorsed Robson, will still appear on the ballot and placed a distant third at 4.3%. Scott Neely and Paola Tulliani-Zen round out fourth and fifth with 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively.

The Grand Canyon State has become the latest battleground for control over the Republican Party. Former President Donald J. Trump has endorsed Kari Lake, while the Republican Establishment represented by former Vice President Mike Pence and Governor Doug Ducey have come out in support of Robson.

"'While there was some evidence Robson was gaining last week, our polling indicates Lake has begun to close that door on her competition," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, stated. "Over the weekend, the frontrunner gained with every key demographic and has a much easier path to victory."

Voting is already underway and Lake is dominating among voters who have yet to vote but plan to vote before Election Day (41.7% to 25.8%) and those who plan to vote on Election Day (46.7% to 20.5%). Robson holds a statistically insignificant lead among those who have already cast a ballot, 42.5% to 41.9%.

Enthusiasm and likelihood to vote also favor Lake, who leads among those who are "extremely" enthusiastic by 18 points, 49.0% to 30.6%. Of those who are "very" enthusiastic, Lake leads by a whopping 20-point margin, 43.8% to 23.4%. Voters who are "certain to vote or have already voted" back Lake over Robson, 45.5% to 30.2%.

In a more ominous sign for Robson, the two largest counties are backing Lake.

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In Maricopa, which accounts for about 6 in 10 votes, voters are breaking her way 43.0% to 30.8% over Robson. In Pima, Lake leads 41.5% to 23.6%. The remaining counties are also supporting Lake by a combined 44.0% to 26.4%.

Primary participation and political leanings reveal Republicans will have a turnout advantage on August 2, as well as in November. When asked, 56.1% of likely primary voters report they will vote in the Republican primary, while 43.9% will vote in the Democratic primary. Only 1.9% of Republicans claim they will vote in the Democratic primary, while 3.7% of Democrats report they will cross the aisle.

Independent and third-party voters are overwhelmingly participating in the Republican contests, 61.6% to 38.4%.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs leads the Democratic primary field with 53.8% to 12.2% for Marco Lopez. Aaron Lieberman, who also withdrew but will appear on the ballot, still draws 3.9%. Roughly 3 in 10 (30.4%) Democratic primary voters in Arizona remain undecided even though it's widely believed Sectary Hobbs is running essentially uncontested.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Primary and Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,172 likely primary voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.9% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. The sampling error for Republican primary voters (N=644) is ± 3.9% at a 95% confidence interval, and the sampling error for Democratic primary voters (N=504) is ± 4.4% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on Google Sheets.

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