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CD Media Big Data Poll: Republicans Lead Democrats on Generic Ballot in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Generic Ballot By Education
Source: Pennsylvania CD Media Big Data Poll

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The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Republicans lead Democrats on the Generic Ballot in Pennsylvania 49.6% to 43.8%, with only 4.5% undecided. Another 2.2% opted for “someone else” in their congressional district.

By education, Republicans lead among working class voters with no college degree 58.7% to 32.3% and among voters with some college or a 2-year degree, 54.3% to 37.8%. Democrats lead slightly among voters with a 4-year degree 49.1% to 46.9% and overwhelmingly with advanced degrees, 72.1% to 24.3%.

Cost of Living / Inflation was cited as the most important to their vote by 23.6%; Economy and Jobs came in second at 14.4%; Abortion was cited third at 13.4%; and Gun Rights / Second Amendment fourth at 9.7%. Republicans lead among voters who cited Cost of Living / Inflation by a 65.0% to 30.8% margin and among those who cited the Economist and Jobs, 65.4% to 23.4%. Roughly 9 in 10 voters who cited Abortion back the Democratic candidate, while those who cited Gun Rights / Second Amendment break for Republicans, 85.6% to 11.3%.

The results of the Generic Ballot and presidential approval rating statewide could be a boon for Republicans running for both governor and U.S. Senate.

“Voters in Pennsylvania clearly want to vote Republican in November,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “I’m just not convinced they’re headed for a clean sweep statewide, though the political winds are clearly blowing in their direction across these battleground districts.”

“The talk about abortion has resulted in increased interest among Democratic and liberal voters, but persuadable voters are still very much focused on inflation and the economy.”

Only 20.8% strongly approve of the job Biden is doing as President in Pennsylvania, while 50.8% strongly disapprove and another 3.8% somewhat disapprove. Overall, he’s underwater 43.3% to 54.5%. Only a combined 28.6% of independents and third party voters approve.

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As previously reported, Democrat Josh Shapiro and Mastriano are locked in a tight race for governor in Pennsylvania. Shapiro holds a statistically insignificant lead at 43.9% with Mastriano taking 43.2%. Of those who are undecided in the race for governor, 61.9% strongly disapprove and another 4.4% somewhat disapprove.

Democrat John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz by 43.8% to 40.0% in a quickly tightening race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. Of those who are undecided in the race for U.S. Senate, 69.0% strongly disapprove and another 3.6% somewhat disapprove.

The Keystone State is one of the most crucial battleground states and which party controls the governor’s mansion is critical to the 2024 presidential election. The CD Media Big Data Poll was conducted before Donald Trump visited Wilkes-Barre on Saturday to rally for both Mastriano and Oz.

As also previously reported, Trump now leads Biden 46.6% to 40.0% in the state. The 45th President became the first Republican to carry the Keystone State since 1988 when he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, but lost it to the 46th President by less than 1.2% in 2020.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Pennsylvania Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 927 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from August 30 to September 1, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.2% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.

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