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The CDM BIG DATA POLL finds the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania tightening quickly with just three weeks until Election Day. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey holds a narrow lead over Republican Dave McCormick, a lead that tightens to within the margin among likely voters.

Among registered voters, Casey edges out McCormick 45.3% to 41.4%, with 13.3% undecided. However, among likely voters both see increases in vote shares, but his lead overall shrinks, 47.3% to 43.8%.

“This race has tightened dramatically and quickly over the course of a month,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “Undecided voters have been and are still breaking some two to one for Dave McCormick.”

“The questions now remain whether Bob Casey’s lead was large enough and solid enough to withstand this momentum, and potential coattails from the presidential race.”

When undecided registered voters are leaned, Casey leads by 51.8% to 48.2%. But among likely voters, his lead narrows to roughly only 2 points, or 51.2% to 48.8%.

As previously reported, the CDM BIG DATA POLL also found a close race for president. Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by roughly 3 points.

Methodology

The CDM BIG DATA POLL sponsored by CD Media was conducted by BIG DATA POLL and interviewed 1,024 registered voters and 942 likely voters statewide in Pennsylvania from October 10 to October 14, 2024. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is ±2.9% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.

Regional Definitions By County

The Keystone Battleground notably adds two additional regions not explicitly defined in traditional exit polls for Pennsylvania, and they are weighted accordingly: Dutch and Allegheny. This is done to ensure a more accurate representation in rural and suburban areas due to higher participation rates in higher population centers and metro areas. It’s important to note that part of the Dutch Region includes what is traditionally referred to as the Philadelphia Suburbs.

• Philadelphia: Philadelphia
• Southeast: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery
• Northeast: Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Schuylkill, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming
• Dutch: Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, York
• Central: Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk, Forest, Fulton, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren
• West: Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Crawford, Erie, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland
• Allegheny: Allegheny

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