CD Media Big Data Poll: Evers, Michels in Dead Heat for Wisconsin Governor

Republican Turnout Advantage Buoying Michels' Bid to Defeat Evers, Incumbent in Low 40s

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The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Democratic incumbent Governor Tony Evers locked in a dead heat with Republican Tim Michels in the hotly contested gubernatorial election in Wisconsin. Evers (41.9%) and Michels (42.1%) each draw about 42%, while 14.2% remain undecided and another 1.7% say they'll vote for independent candidate, Joan Ellis Beglinger.

By education, voters with a high school degree or less back Michels 46.1% to 33.4%, though 18.8% are still undecided. Voters with some college or an Associate degree also back Michels 45.4% to 37.1% and 15.6% remain undecided. Voters with a 4-year degree back Evers by roughly 10 points, 47.5% to 37.7%, with 12.6% undecided. Evers' biggest lead is among voters who hold advanced or postgraduate degrees, 55.6% to 36.1%. However, they are the smallest group in the electorate and only 7.2% remain undecided.

Men prefer Michels 46.4% to 37.5% and women prefer Evers by a similar margin, 46.5% to 37.7%. Further, men (92.3%) are also more "certain to vote" than women (86.1%), setting the stage for a more male-heavy electorate. That has largely been the case in Wisconsin since 2018, when men outvoted women and were 51% of the electorate. In 2020, the electorate was even at 50% male, 50% female.

Projected Electorate

Aristotle National Voter File Database Wisconsin Inference By Party

The electorate in the fall is projected to be more Republican than Democratic. In Wisconsin, machine-learning inference models that use primary vote history, contribution records and scores of other data attributes show Republicans outnumbering Democrats by roughly a 5-point spread—or, 38.58% Republican, 33.95% Democrat, and 27.47% None/Unknown.

The likely voter model used by the CD Media Big Data Poll projects the partisan composition of the electorate slightly less Republican at a R/D/I-O split of 34.5%/31.8%/33.7%. Of those "certain to vote" in November, Michels leads 44.1% to 42.0%. Of those "extremely enthusiastic" to vote, Michels also leads 48.0% to 41.3%.

"Our inference models have shown a clear and consistent trend toward Republicans in Wisconsin over the last six years or so," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris added. "In 2020, the Republican advantage was far larger than most—to include myself—had anticipated."

"The major difference this year is that self-identified independent voters are backing Johnson and other Republicans."

Michels leads Evers among self-identified independent voters 41.9% to 32.8%.

As previously stated, men are more likely to vote than women in November. More men (70.4%) are extremely enthusiastic to vote than women (63.8%), as well.

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Most Important Issue

Cost of living and inflation ranked first when asked which issue would be most important to their vote at 26.7%. Abortion was second with 15.9% citing it as their most important issue and the economy and jobs was third with 14.6%. Johnson leads among voters who cited cost of living and inflation, as well as the economy and jobs. Barnes leads among voters who cited abortion. Immigration was fourth, cited by 6.7% of voters who overwhelmingly back Johnson.

Biden's Approval Rating

President Joe Biden's approval rating is underwater in Wisconsin. While 44.6% approve of the job he's doing as president, to include 23.4% who strongly approve, 54.5% disapprove and that includes 47.9% who strongly disapprove.

"That -24.5% intensity index with only 0.9% remaining undecided strongly suggests Biden will be an anchor weighing down Democratic candidates in November," Baris noted. "This should come as no surprise to anyone, though the impact is less at the gubernatorial level."

Of those who remain undecided in the race for Wisconsin governor, 56.6% strongly disapprove and another 7.2% somewhat disapprove. Only 13.7% strongly approve and 18.9% somewhat approve.

The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Wisconsin Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 852 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from September 17 to September 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file (Aristotle) demographics to include gender, age, race and ethnicity, education and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and a detailed methodology statement can be viewed HERE.

3 Days Later: No Report Of Gun In Blake's Car, Citizens Take Charge, Trump Sends 2,000 Nat'l Guard

Kenosha Mayor John Antaramian

A city roiled by multi-day rioting. Bricks conveniently appear which are used to injure a police officer. Shots fired in self-defense. Casualties. In Wisconsin. When they said it was coming to a city near you, they weren't lying.

The question CDMedia asked yesterday has become an online chorus: where is the latest information from the Kenosha Police Department? The more the public knows, the less they are likely to assume. The less they have to assume, the less likely they are to riot.

In this regard, the blood of the two protesters killed and another injured would appear to rest on the hands of Kenosha Mayor John Antaramian, a Democrat. Antaramian looks lost during the scant press conferences in which he has appeared, and overwhelmed by the activists in his city.

From August 24th.

The focus today has turned to the activities of last night. A 17 year-old, Kyle Rittenhouse, showed up to provide medical assistance and protection from rioters. In his own words, "So, people are getting injured...if somebody's hurt, I'm running into harm's way, that's why I have my rifle, to protect myself, but I also have my med kit."

Rittenhouse was attacked after assisting an injured man, first knocked down by a skateboard-wielding rioter. One of the protesters yelled, "Get his ass!" and then Rittenhouse was leapt upon by another, who was apparently trying to stomp his head into the pavement.

At that point Rittenhouse recovered himself and fired several shots, striking three men, one of whom was holding a handgun, poised to shoot Rittenhouse.

Rittenhouse then approached four police vehicles that had advanced on the scene with his hands in the air. Self-defense, followed by surrender to authorities. So it was upsetting, though not entirely unexpected, to hear today that Rittenhouse had been arrested, and charged with intentional homicide. He is being held by federal authorities currently.

How does this happen? In the era of Antifa and BLM, it isn't unusual to see individuals who may possibly be innocent arrested and/or fired in order to placate the mob. In Minneapolis, we saw Derek Chauvin and his three fellow officers fired immediately, even though the technique Chauvin used was department-approved and legal by Minnesota law, regardless of the duration with which he employed it.

{For a gallery of images from the scene, click here for a photo essay from the Daily Mail.}

Writ much, much smaller, think back to "Central Park Amy," the woman with an off-leash dog in Central Park, who, within 48 hours of a cell phone video that started in the middle of a situation, lost her job, her dog, and her personal safety. For letting her small dog run in a public park, and phoning the police when threatened by a black man.

Since the situation is clearly beyond the grasp of Kenosha authorities, calls for the National Guard have been issued from various corners of the community for the past two days. Yesterday, Gov. Tony Evers (D) turned down offers for assistance, so he shares the blame with Mayor Antaramian for what transpired last night.

Today, he doubled his authorization for National Guardsmen from 250 to 500, but President Trump went over his head later this afternoon and approved 2,000 Guardsmen for service, as reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The White House authorized sending up to 2,000 National Guard members from neighboring states to help contain unrest in Kenosha on Wednesday, a day after a gunman killed two people and injured a third

Gov. Tony Evers accepted the help after turning down federal assistance a day earlier.

In addition to the National Guard members from other states, up to 200 law enforcement members will be available in Kenosha, including form the FBI and U.S. Marshals Service, according to the White House.

But it's unclear how many Guard members and law enforcement officers will actually be sent. What happens will in part depend on the decisions of Adjutant General Paul Knapp of the Wisconsin National Guard, according to the White House. 

One hopes justice is finally served impartially in the cases of Jacob Blake, the officers involved, and now, Kyle Rittenhouse. From Minneapolis to Portland to Kenosha, this feels more like the tip of the spear than a closing chapter to the national BLM nightmare.

Liberal Progressive Gov. Postpones Primary Election In Wisconsin

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers on Monday put off the state’s presidential primary for two months citing complications from the Chinavirus pandemic. The executive order from Evers, a Democrat, would delay in-person voting until June 9. Republican's challenged the EO in court noting that canceling an election is unconstitutional and violates basic principles of democracy. Because Evers waited until the day before the primary to announce his edict it has left the state Supreme Court a scant 24 hours to decide whether voters will be able to head to the polls on Tuesday.

Liberal Progressive Gov. Postpones Primary Election In Wisconsin
Forward... to June 9th

Wisconsin has 2,320 confirmed cases of Chinavirus which has resulted in 75 deaths. Evers is one of several Democrat governors who issued a stay-at-home order and closed all nonessential businesses early on in the crisis. Dozens of polling places have been closed and there is deep concern among Democrats that their voting constituency would be suppressed. A look at the Wisconsin Health Map shows that almost all Chinavirus cases are in the city of Milwaukee with very little contagion in other parts of the state.

Democrats have been very unhappy with their 2020 primary process ever since they had to sabotage the Iowa Caucus on February 3 to prevent Bernie Sanders from winning. Shenanigans continued through the early primaries until the day before Super Tuesday on March 3 when competitive candidates like Pete Buttigieg were asked to fall on their sword and allow Joe Biden to become the "front runner." Shortly after those early March primaries the Chinavirus captured the headlines, businesses and public gatherings with shut down and the 15 day pause closed down "non-essential" work and gatherings across the country. Tonight Wisconsin's Supreme Court has to decide if voting is an "essential" activity for a functioning democracy.

The Chinavirus shut down of America's future has been wonderfully serendipitous for a Democratic party that doesn't want to show the nation its candidates. The presumptive front runner, Joe Biden, has suggested transforming the traditional DNC convention, scheduled to take place in Milwaukee August 17-20, to some kind of virtual get together using computers and smartphones. So far, just over half the states have voted in the primaries so there are still over 1,500 delegates uncommitted to a candidate.

A presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020 and there is no way to postpone it due to Chinavirus hysteria. It's going to happen and the Democratic Party needs to acknowledge that reality and act in accordance with America's Constitution and traditions.

Update 4/7/2020

Wisconsin Supreme Court on Monday agreed with Gov. Evers earlier musings that he didn’t have the authority to reschedule the race on his own. The court struck down his executive order moving the election to June and allowed Wisconsin citizens to vote for their state and local officials. The U.S. Supreme Court quickly followed with a ruling blocking Democratic efforts to extend absentee voting past today's election.

Wisconsin is now the only state with an election scheduled in April and adhering to law. As other states prepare to vote in May or June, Wisconsin will be long admired for meeting civic obligations and believing in the democratic process.

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