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The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia finds Republican challenger Herschel Walker leads incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock 45.7% to 42.8%. That’s a slightly narrower margin than the 5-point lead the poll found for Walker in September.
In the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, the former football star holds a commanding lead at 58.6%, with 18.6% undecided. Gary Black, the closest rival, trails far behind at 7.6% of the primary vote.
“Herschel Walker is very likely to be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in Georgia and has consistently led the Democratic incumbent,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said. “While the race tightened somewhat, the fundamentals still suggest Walker will be the favorite in November.”
“Walker has consistently led in the suburbs statewide and that bodes well for his chances among undecided voters in the suburbs outside of Atlanta.”
By race, white voters overwhelmingly support Mr. Walker, 63.2% to 25.6%, a margin that even exceeds Donald Trump in a rematch against Joe Joe. More than 3 in 4 (76.1%) of black voters back Senator Warnock, while 12.6% back the Republican.
Worth noting, Walker is underperforming both Trump and Generic Republicans among Hispanic voters. While they appear to be trending toward Trump and the GOP ahead of the midterms—slightly backing Republicans 43.8% to 43.4% and Trump by a wider 47.0% to 41.9% margin—Senator Warnock leads this bloc 48.7% to 36.1%.
By area, Warnock leads Walker only among urban voters, 64.1% to 25.3%. Walker leads Warnock among rural voters, 58.9% to just 26.8%, and in the suburbs by 3 points, 46.2% to 43.3%.
Independent and third party voters break for Mr. Walker 42.5% to 34.4%.
The CD Media Big Data Poll in Georgia interviewed 1,519 likely voters statewide via Peer-to-Peer SMS to an online survey panel from May 8 to May 11, 2022. The survey sampling error is ± 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval. Results are weighted to represent national voter file demographics in the state to include gender, age, race and region. The likely voter screen includes vote history and self-reported likelihood to vote. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Full crosstabs.
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