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The CD Media Big Data Poll finds Republicans leading Democrats on the Generic Ballot in Arizona, 49.3% to 39.5%. Maricopa County, which represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide, is breaking for the Republican candidate 50.2% to 38.9%. Democrats lead in Pima County 51.1% to 36.5%, but trail 55.3% to 33.8% in the rest of the state.
That roughly 9-point lead is far outside the survey sampling error and indicates all three competitive congressional districts in the state Lean Republican ahead of November.
“Historically, the incumbent party in power nationally performs poorly in first-term incumbent midterms,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “Given the closeness of the state over the last three election cycles, we shouldn't at all be surprised by these findings."
"If we scratch beneath the surface and dig a little deeper into the results, the findings reveal clear advantages for Republicans heading into November.”
| OLD Arizona House (2021) | NEW Arizona House (2022) |
|---|---|
| 4 Solid DEM/Biden | 3 Solid DEM/Biden |
| 3 Solid GOP/Trump | 3 Solid GOP/Trump |
| 2 Competitive/Battlegrounds | 3 Competitive/Battlegrounds |
Men prefer the Republican candidate 54.7% to 35.0% and women are split 44.2% to 43.8%. The last election in which the two party vote split among women was 2010, a year in which the GOP posted historic gains to retake the U.S. House of Representatives.
Far fewer Democrats (53.2%) than Republicans (64.5%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, an 11.3% enthusiasm edge for the GOP. Among extremely enthusiastic voters, Republicans hold a 57.0% to 38.8%, edge, and among “very” enthusiastic voters, 48.2% to 41.5%. Democrats lead among "moderately" (40.7% to 33.1%) and "slightly" (34.4% to 32.1%) enthusiastic voters.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the unenthused will represent a much smaller share of the electorate in November. Nearly all voters (97.4%) who reported being “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November. That certainty to vote compares to just 55.7% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, 39.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic, and 57.9% who are “not at all” enthusiastic.
Of those certain to vote, Republicans lead 52.3% to 39.8%. Democrats lead 38.2% to 34.4% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (less than certain but ≥ 50/50 likelihood).
White voters back Republicans for the U.S. Congress 54.0% to 36.4%, while Hispanic voters still lean slightly toward Democrats, 45.5% to 38.8%. Independent and third party voters support the Republican candidate, 44.0% to 29.9%.
The Generic Ballot could also signal deep trouble for first-term incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly. As the CD Media Big Data Poll previously reported, Kelly is fighting for his political survival in the U.S. Senate against Republican frontrunner Blake Masters. The incumbent holds a slight 3-point lead, or 43.7% to 40.6% with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.
However, of those who are undecided in the race for U.S. Senate, 54.1% strongly disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president and only 4.1% strongly approve. Overall, the president is underwater with undecided voters in the senatorial contest by an astonishing 76.5% to 19.1%.
“The relationship between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance for their party candidate is well established,” Director Baris stated. “The president is deeply unpopular in the Grand Canyon State and that dissatisfaction will weigh down Democratic candidates up and down the ballot this fall.”
The CD Media Big Data Poll also previously reported Biden’s approval rating in Arizona at only 36.2% and disapproval has skyrocketed to 62.0%. Roughly half (49.5%) of all likely midterm voters strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while only 13.3% strongly approve, resulting in an intensity index of -36.2.
Of those who are undecided on the Generic Ballot, 43.6% strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing and another 25.4% somewhat disapprove. Just over a quarter combined approve of the Democratic president.
The CD Media Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 1,298 likely general election midterm voters statewide via Peer-2-Peer SMS/OSP from July 16 to July 18, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 4-cycle primary vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight and methodology on Google Sheets.
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