The CDM Big Data Poll finds Democratic incumbent Senator Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters statistically tied for U.S. Senate in Arizona. In July, Kelly held a slight early lead over Masters in the CDM Big Data Poll, 43.7% to 40.6%, with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.
Now, with four weeks to go before Election Day, Kelly and Masters are separated by just 0.6% in the Grand Canyon State, or 45.8% to 45.2%, respectively. The incumbent has risen 2.1% since the last survey, while the vastly outspent challenger has gained 4.6%. Libertarian Marc Victor earns 1.8% and 7.2% remain undecided.
"The movement has come almost exclusively from those who disapprove of the job the president is doing and among those who previously indicated they would vote for someone else," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. "The challenger gained the lion's share of those voters and the race now really is a coin toss."
Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Masters leads Kelly among extremely enthusiastic voters, 51.6% to 45.6%, up from the 46.9% to 40.0% advantage Masters held in July.
Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4%. That certainty to vote compares to just 65.0% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, and 36.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic. Of those most likely to vote, Masters leads Kelly 47.6% to 46.5%. In July, the two candidates were tied at 43.3% among those certain to vote.
Kelly leads 42.8% to 24.1% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).
By region, Masters hold a slight 46.9% to 45.7% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That's well within the sampling error of the survey and it's important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Kelly leads in Pima County 58.1% to 33.2% and Masters leads in the rest of the state, 48.7% to 38.0%.
President Joe Biden's approval rating is still significantly underwater and negative, and intense disapproval has not diminished. Only 43.2% of likely general election midterm voters approval of the job he's doing, including 19.2% who strongly approve. However, 55.7% disapprove to include 49.3% strongly disapprove.
The CDM Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
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