The CDM Big Data Poll finds Republican Kari Lake leading Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the race for governor of Arizona. Lake, a 22-year veteran anchor for Fox 10 Phoenix (KSAZ-TV), held a slight 1-point lead over Hobbs in the CDMedia Big Data Poll in July. 43.7% to 40.6%, with 7.8% opting for someone else and another 8.0% undecided.
Now, with four weeks to go before Election Day, Lake leads Hobbs in the Grand Canyon State by 3.7%, or 48.5% to 44.8%, respectively. The Republican has risen 9.1% since the last survey, while the Democrat has gained 6.7%. Less than 1% (0.6%) intends to cast a write-in vote and 6.2% remain undecided.
"There has been significant movement in the Arizona governor's race since the last survey we conducted in the state," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, noted. "Republicans have come home after a tough fought primary and the voters who represent the nearly 50% decline in undecideds broke hard and fast for Lake."
Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Lake leads Hobbs among extremely enthusiastic voters, 53.9% to 43.7%, up from the 45.4% to 37.8% advantage Lake held in July.
Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4%. That certainty to vote compares to just 65.0% who are “moderately” enthusiastic, and 36.8% who are “slightly” enthusiastic. Of those certain to vote, Lake leads Hobbs 50.5% to 44.9%, up from the 41.7% to 38.4% lead Lake held in July among those certain to vote.
Hobbs leads 41.7% to 31.7% among lower propensity potential midterm voters (≥ 50/50 likelihood).
By region, Lake hold a 50.3% to 44.8% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That’s just outside the sampling error of the survey and it’s important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Hobbs leads in Pima County 55.3% to 36.6% and Lake leads in the rest of the state, 51.4% to 38.0%.
President Joe Biden's approval rating is still significantly underwater and negative, and intense disapproval has not diminished. Only 43.2% of likely general election midterm voters approval of the job he's doing, including 19.2% who strongly approve. However, 55.7% disapprove to include 49.3% strongly disapprove.
The CDM Big Data Poll for the Arizona Midterm Elections was conducted by Big Data Poll and interviewed 974 likely general election midterm voters statewide via mixed-mode Peer-2-Peer SMS and OSP from October 2 to October 5, 2022. The overall survey sampling error is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Results are weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The proprietary likely voter model is determined by both self-reported likelihood and 2/4-cycle midterm vote history. The full crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
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